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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑 ) X  X7 G/ A/ m4 c( m; j& \

% ]) Z5 W, J5 f  |+ N9 D, C) _刚刚认真计算了一次;
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& i, H$ `! N# Z; h! r, i* @假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:/ O/ [( V3 c2 s. V* e
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
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开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72
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开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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* d- h9 l1 A. K. n% v8 J收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5
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所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;0 H- n& n* _6 t

3 H0 o9 N5 M6 @0 L  O. R; v& n加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;) P, w  J+ `1 p3 ~# n8 W) T, n) w

$ E$ k) w1 C7 A/ X* K以上,76gor
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我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;) X# c0 Q6 M! ~/ n' u; X

0 i6 V2 F4 P/ }6 P3 j假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,, N2 v+ Z7 ^% ~9 L% y9 J3 R
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000
) z: W( ?. |$ R9 ~; I每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152$ w" l& n5 @/ U! V" ?* a
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假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500
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0 P, ^6 q4 p. H! [8 M每天净收入为:¥652$ R& k- j% G( p- W/ P6 T
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年收入为:¥237,9806 f; I4 E/ w# s. O- Q# S; Y

+ c" I- g8 M; ^唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;
4 h. l2 i  ~# X8 S2 l唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
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回复 2# 76gor
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6 N8 J( g7 F' @   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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感谢76分享阿
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?
; J/ d9 @. e# m2 S( F! ?7 M- b! d0 RTerrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22

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    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,9 [4 t- S% ]$ g; B: {
beata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24

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4 @0 ]/ C6 l3 T0 B8 c- Q    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
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刚刚认真计算了一次;
9 L* s$ A/ q% ?; s3 f; S: q
% Q# D/ D# _: O# b, ?假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
$ ?' A, Y  X/ U
# R0 G- h0 t  q& M7 g+ l) |开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
9 n2 u% v4 V+ g8 T; \5 [# ^/ S76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54

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( o3 W- |2 f6 E3 }( \) P, K楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏" O$ o) D" q9 n4 i
大概是1%多点
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' M& c# i$ E, k" s9 C0 N7 ~" ?0 ?至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏8 [' b" O9 |- o0 N3 ~* c
大概是1%多点
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...
/ I& U& N! `0 u- u' K3 P" rtaishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27

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# ]8 _7 u( m, `; {/ o, d1 E% S    请指教
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楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?9 J3 Q# O/ t% ^  i, M5 b% ^# |5 }
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26

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* W7 X) v( O8 U* p    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor
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- Z  Q. P+ H' D, h/ Y+ w5 \   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor
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) [( }9 R* d. Y, v* `! a   有个风险就是豹子吧!
4 ^9 y! D3 x% U& u, ~粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30

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    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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