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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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1#
本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑 , g+ C3 I8 A& {1 u  H
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刚刚认真计算了一次;
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
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8 @$ Z1 M2 T& B0 s/ J, d开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72, j) O0 m' L" r# ]* t
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开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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5 m& z8 d( b" A收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.50 J1 {& ~  D8 A6 @; {* i. r
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8 F; s0 b# F: A, d3 \所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;
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加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;5 U% ^& a2 }/ }* R, n

' r! p  C9 V7 h' w( L# ^9 w; n  Z以上,76gor3 \2 b  m6 g( B% |" n4 w
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2#
我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;6 i4 p) w- D0 U
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假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000
- B0 ~3 C0 `4 A* k$ R每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152- P7 B0 g/ e& ^* \, a; }
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假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500
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每天净收入为:¥652& [1 t4 f- w) v) c1 @

  U4 K+ z$ @2 [7 a$ }- ~年收入为:¥237,980
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1 J# {' Q6 G/ o+ e: U唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;
6 W) k2 Z, W3 g1 E9 ~+ ~. }, D唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
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3#
回复 2# 76gor
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   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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4#
感谢76分享阿
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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7#
最近流行探讨这个话题?/ s+ a- R6 w1 ?9 u9 b
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22
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    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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8#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
! ~- i* B( a8 k; Y7 Q5 a3 Sbeata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24

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    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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9#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
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11#
刚刚认真计算了一次;& b! O% f9 q+ M$ D+ r" ?) g
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
( v& e2 m; U4 U$ m" Y+ a* P0 j" F: [3 o# k
开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
+ t0 H* q+ ~0 M, j4 @5 ~76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54

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2 P- F9 }9 Q' F# f8 u楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
! i2 ^' x+ q1 O( N, ?大概是1%多点; x% e: v$ q3 m5 |& W
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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12#
楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
  W9 z8 S: `' H) H/ T* g大概是1%多点0 w* a; T3 h! G. J# g

2 ?2 S* E, f# G9 j' @- t至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...7 L6 x, w5 I( M( U! g  ?
taishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27

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6 V3 i# p( u% }) x( y1 @/ F    请指教
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13#
楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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14#
看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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15#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?; h4 G: a: k- m0 t% U0 e3 u
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26

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    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor : v4 E# P! j: ]3 |5 G- `
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   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor 0 s( J! R* g- k5 z  }) d0 J

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   有个风险就是豹子吧!  G1 }1 e3 ?7 Y! j2 ~
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30

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    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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