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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑 " S2 r6 Z. C+ d) o) V; |+ d# Y/ c% Z

* E7 ^- A7 j. Z! r4 b刚刚认真计算了一次;
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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( ]/ b9 ^0 B, k7 v+ L( C) I/ B开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;- C) }+ S7 q, u: |! J
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开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72
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* O9 A& l: `1 }. C% p& X6 ]5 J开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5
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/ ^- U1 d2 A# W+ E所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;# `9 R; s3 h! S" g+ F

7 v! {9 r6 b/ c加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;0 n) n9 Q/ {% f( u
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以上,76gor
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我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;* S( W5 _2 R8 E3 j' m3 i; w
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假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000) \9 u6 H  ^+ z7 T/ J
每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152
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假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500
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每天净收入为:¥6522 a( \5 j  Z) U2 B, \

5 J! c! Z  R1 `+ t1 Y) Z年收入为:¥237,980
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唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;
' z$ `: C. Q) D, B7 \) O唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;  v7 U* ]% R" I4 t2 t

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回复 2# 76gor # E& M3 c8 _) h4 u7 Y

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   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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4#
感谢76分享阿
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?/ d/ i* ^! g" `/ _# h. r5 c' H
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22
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    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,
( h/ N7 X" B# k6 o, _7 h8 L2 @( ?beata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24

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: i7 s$ X, f1 V& }1 e: }. k    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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楼主分析得好厉害啊
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刚刚认真计算了一次;9 m( n* r' o$ n* A9 ~5 N

6 b5 {4 K7 [/ l8 \) ~% F假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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' e  {: ]' n( h开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...5 S: e- C' [" ^# b+ {
76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54

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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏& ^$ l- h# D1 }) l* L
大概是1%多点$ M$ I3 h( P$ N& W( Y2 ?9 G- ]

) e2 D# {0 g+ p1 z( I至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
0 Z8 a4 m/ y$ u- h大概是1%多点
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! [2 P4 i/ y# I$ M$ j至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...
- W! e$ Z: [* {  f, K5 {taishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27

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    请指教
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楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?( V8 U* @7 y  `0 n- F
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26

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    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor
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% A! k0 _% k6 ]3 R: u   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor 3 q9 W1 \8 C$ ?6 g2 [0 T) x3 _
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+ w: g9 {. W! k# G) q4 h   有个风险就是豹子吧!5 P" W# `' d; O; e+ h1 x
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30

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    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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