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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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1#
本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑 . ^7 g% s+ O2 Q# ]. z
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刚刚认真计算了一次;
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:0 ]4 a  O/ K  N0 e0 e$ c$ S

' A; P0 y- e$ A! `' X5 I, u6 R开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
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9 @1 z4 N9 z1 n0 g- u开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72
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. x0 u# c+ Y7 L/ w7 F开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72! n3 {6 E" a% s; W/ _) u' ]& Z
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收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5
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所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;$ @0 s2 x, B+ w: ~; D2 f

( y+ b, q  v' C. W" K, F加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;7 v: E" K  Y5 g$ j% G4 U

' O1 h9 x; n! [3 ~& Y+ Q以上,76gor' u0 c7 N" L: }4 I7 T
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我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;
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假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000
3 A( N/ Q* M+ v/ }  ^, D' I% E每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152
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假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500
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4 m$ e3 R+ y8 L: `" ^3 d每天净收入为:¥652
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年收入为:¥237,9804 n/ I% i" M8 P2 N3 K# C3 y
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唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;" V  f1 y( X6 F- Y6 g
唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;. c  R2 G$ W" I7 b" |, ~! U! C
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回复 2# 76gor ) i0 F4 L; K% O: ]* \% _

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   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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4#
感谢76分享阿
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?$ V& e, X  \3 u
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22

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1 d8 Q0 V+ E. `$ d6 M# _    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,
& w0 B3 _: ^3 u( q/ ubeata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24

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    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
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刚刚认真计算了一次;% E5 Q. B; X; J4 E/ N
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
/ ~+ Q3 Y3 m& E6 x0 h: \& }. K, J6 ]7 o0 S3 {2 t
开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
  t% E. w  z7 M; V7 h  N# m1 S3 w! p" \76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54

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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
2 m% p0 x, G5 |  O大概是1%多点
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏/ t; i' U: k2 `/ [8 S, m" d
大概是1%多点! S9 o" z% K# O3 r- |

' ]- q  y/ [/ ]8 y& R, W至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...0 ^, |. j8 t! Y# x9 R9 i2 I
taishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27

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5 L: ~8 w' M+ ~    请指教
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13#
楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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14#
看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
" a9 C7 a  ]7 F* O粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26

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6 r+ P7 C4 u3 y* z4 m- c) O# N. v/ X    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor
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   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor
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   有个风险就是豹子吧!
+ w) i- t2 P' L/ ?, s6 l粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30

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    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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