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[体育菠菜心得方法] 体育博彩中的相似盘口赔率应该如何进行分析(2)
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1#
莫尔德 VS 阿勒桑(2:2)
: y1 v+ H% K* ~+ J' U  T' i6 D* k
SSP1.79 3.57 3.57,
+ I9 r' C0 i) F# w0 z威廉1.90 3.20 3.50,
2 R& T" t2 O4 d3 |: R; D' z立博1.91 3.30 4.00, $ |7 \* S0 a2 u9 Y& d, r! i
伟德2.00 3.25 3.25—1.90 3.25 3.50, 6 U) |* {% C5 b! m7 z
Interwetten1.85 3.20 3.50, 8 y& R: R8 p  R2 w$ }
BET365:2.10 3.29 3.29, 3 E. w7 \$ Q8 f: D& K
易胜博2.00 3.20 3.10—2.05 3.20 3.00,   L; g' B7 K0 e/ a2 c& d
Unibet2.15 3.30 3.25—2.10 3.30 3.40,
9 C9 K  |; Y; j: J$ m0 W8 bCoral2.00 3.20 3.20, , U% v1 t; o  E$ m6 q4 V- d
PLAYIT2.10 3.35 3.25—2.00 3.35 3.50, % Z1 B1 e' E7 i8 ?3 u4 a
Nordicbet1.95 3.35 4.00, 5 t" b% I0 B6 o# w  G. Q
Norway1.85 3.30 3.00 ! |6 ^3 I, R1 I4 n
平均1.99 3.31 3.49 ! y$ w' V* X. t9 M& ^; M& J
澳门初盘0.825平/半1.025,现已经升到半球高水, 0 o* n: x3 y$ {
立博0.76平/半1.08" s+ ^. @% N9 ~8 E4 m
莫尔德排名12,今年前6轮4负2胜,这2胜是近2轮的,上轮客3:2胜维京暴出大冷,走势为高,而阿勒桑今年是1胜1平4负,上轮竟然主场0:1负特罗姆瑟已经降之榜尾,历史对阵阿勒桑1:1平莫尔德,客场有3:2战胜莫尔德的战绩,竟然不落下风,这是基本面的东西。  _1 ?6 }: m* N8 m6 j- F8 P
  j0 E0 y% ?6 q5 y: p
我们看到主胜的赔率从Norway的1.85到威廉的1.90和立博的1.91,Nordicbet的1.95到伟德的2.00,易胜博,Coral的2.00,到BET365的2.10,Unibet的2.15幽默的阶梯之状。5 l) |' n! e' S+ ~7 ~# _

9 _4 \8 q' V7 J) N- h阿勒桑客胜倒是自3.00(易胜博变盘最低)---3.20—3.25—3.29—3.50直到立博的4.00(表达了不看好客胜的态度)不一而足。平局却异常集中在3.20---3.35这样一个狭小的区域,其中威廉平局最低为3.20。
4 H5 ?( y" G9 `& f9 h
- U2 L2 P, l3 p0 g9 i; u我们发现主流威廉立博主胜为1.90是比较低的,而返还率差不多的Interwetten,Norway都是1.85,鉴于客队历史占优,多轮不胜,这样的赔率只能说是正常的,SSP为1.79外其它公司主胜均在主流威廉立博之上,难道小公司都是傻瓜,即使迷惑在上轮巨大的反差下,主胜也是阻不住的,并且它们还开出了客胜赔率低于平局赔率的奇异赔率,BET365和Unibet的仍然为2.10,并且BET365的客胜为3.29放在客胜心理 3.30界线上,Unibet客胜3.25也是如此,易胜博初盘3.10,变盘3.10降为3.00,主胜增加0.05,这样势必会造成客胜的幻想,在上轮巨大的反差下,我想阿勒桑即使历史占优,终不会是其客胜吧,但博彩公司为什么有如此举动呢?' W3 r# F& ~9 T" P* I& ^

. u9 V, w7 o& b$ u6 P再看SSP的1.79,看到上面的情况,玩串的看到本土的Norway为1.85,SSP的1.79会坚定一部分看好主胜者的信心,对其怀疑者感到主胜赔付低者看到Norway的平局3.30,客胜为3.00,高达3.57的平赔也会让人望而却步,而3.57的客胜比威廉的赔付相差无几,也不会有很大的心理压力,我想SSP是倾向于平局赛果的。( s3 u8 O( d8 ]9 g+ J
& y* E* d( b) k) z" e
我想提一点的是英国的彩民看到威廉的1.90 3.20 3.50,客胜仅比平局多3个百分点的确透露了客胜的担忧,那么立博平赔比威廉多0.1达到3.30跟本土Norway相同提高,表达了不看好平局的态度,看到Norway的3.00,立博的4.00也是有诱惑力的,我想立博一定是靠收主胜和负赔来平衡中间的3.30(并且一定是起了高阻的作用)。  N: l0 H) p) e8 H
; @  V/ v4 j  Y- X
所以我倾向于SSP的态度,平局。
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2#
谢谢分享,进来学习!
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3#
谢谢分享,进来学习!
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4#
楼主心得分享了。。
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