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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 5 ~3 l. J! d( ~3 o% f* I: y: M7 W

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只跟踪一个联赛5 R5 i% Y! @$ M" O& l
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔' p4 f# V7 f6 ]/ X# m0 K
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，7 f8 x- w; c( `4 ]. U: C% c
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，5 q2 P2 d5 b/ y

$ d/ h& y. V0 k- i; Y就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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5 x$ f1 D. E. `1 F8 c6 l7 T亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，6 m3 [2 t; u9 v- n/ d
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，2 R4 D4 G0 |; I  P
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。9 a( R2 j' D. X9 m( `( E
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4 k+ z* A3 K2 t; O+ D9 t0 w/ n理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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, R1 J, r# U' {( Q, Z7 x在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。5 L* M3 F/ P; Y* I
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, d# k: f1 C8 {& L0 \  w! p常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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就是回避了大的亏损，
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，) u1 j6 @1 H+ f5 Y6 n$ e$ G, n

7 e% x! [2 L2 z回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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