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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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只跟踪一个联赛
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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, {/ s3 U2 N9 n- K6 i+ E0 C三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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8 Q, Q2 s7 J0 t; g& E* Y9 Z  d偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。- o; B; }2 U# C
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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+ I1 n3 k! f9 N. i3 D# M& i然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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7 b; x0 [/ S" }就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目! z+ U# _9 b; R- ]2 w- |, H
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' K  N9 {0 g7 M7 P) U$ v3 x亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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; T  g, W5 M7 @而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，1 h' Z% h, N& ~+ K: z

: c+ k- ~1 K$ Z3 H4 t% }但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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% ]6 d8 f- y+ O3 T排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，5 A9 K. y5 Z, w( \& s# ~  G

5 H% I* u8 T, h8 T1 w/ x但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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2 K2 m8 X: W( T' H7 b8 ~在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，& I/ K# z  \! r/ y' N2 P, E

$ |9 e4 \8 I* Q* e2 @4 N几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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& g$ T: j5 F$ c" O常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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# \) U, @' p9 I# Y/ K; T  E  _/ j放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，* e- j* y; L+ M8 r; ?! V

) Q" d2 K- V7 j- C" a) A. S' z) n就是回避了大的亏损，
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1 T: i+ o% y, i, P, v1 J大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，! Q. a; H  c: P8 s8 A: p& w2 J
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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