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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。4 n! C1 |: M6 `" ~$ c

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. b5 r" M; m- |7 B; O1 d5 H& b  W西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:. ^6 ^; j1 t5 t+ l: i

. y! o( w4 ?% G! ?5 r$ g皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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; V8 ^8 c5 e, C' l1 s很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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+ I# o# H3 Q( l+ s/ c0 |6 R以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性5 l1 L2 s5 A0 I$ f
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。. k( ?8 \# t! Y- ]0 u$ o

8 G8 S# U: z( i# J增值
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' A8 u: z3 ~/ N. i& C许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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4 ?1 G3 D4 h7 u' o4 d/ h你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?( V( v8 b% O8 y; C

5 l$ d' U; R6 q; a4 N' ja) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 + W# p$ Y: V4 {( C& c' ^9 O
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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. G; J7 [/ M. q8 P$ N40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
) t9 |) n' m4 r: \) K3 v) k60%的机会你会一无所有$ t) V* C; a8 P- Q
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 6 l/ p# u# i9 A6 ]
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。; l$ k% ^! I' u# N
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。4 r8 y# z+ v' w5 `! R# s  d" \( R

: y; g* w4 W; E: a基于增值的投注
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4 b: X) j# v4 e' |8 j3 O' G  p: n7 e凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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$ [& l  _0 K4 K0 K+ p公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)4 W% ]" v* H! M  d  Y- u

$ l0 [9 Y! f, U4 d" c6 RA=博彩资金
8 G  j: G- t! NP=获胜机会
- b( h% J( M3 GO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。6 L# U. k* q! Q) H' l8 U

" K" o$ `8 Q$ d+ J' ?7 V4 W好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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" L; ?9 M; _: h  r2 K) a1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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+ C* C  p4 ^: y& Y3 [2 V/ j8 aA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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; u" i9 u, A8 M' l! Q: i, ~3 kA=02 z( x" ~! b; |" y9 K
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 E' t+ X( s0 y/ W2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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& x) R! E0 n0 _9 r  l( DA=0.1
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2 C  y% u& v2 v/ m结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去4 e$ a, t8 }6 S# u
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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" K0 a1 o( V# AA= -0.2 / Z8 g6 |% T8 ?# N% w
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好" E+ x, j7 @7 x. {5 @
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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