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[lastpost] => 2808978 英国国家安全委员会主席呼吁禁止加密货币ZZ捐款，以防范外国干预英国选举（转） 1771983620 jackcool1011
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2735 小时
本月在线: 70 小时
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截至 2026 年 2 月，加密市场仿佛进入了寒冬。ETH 跌破1900，今年开局创下历史最差表现之一，较 2025 年高点下跌超过 60%。( @1 ~" H# w; d" }3 R$ |/ E" U- T
5 X6 a% `5 [% Y" ~4 P市场情绪极度恐慌，甚至连内部人士卖币都加剧了压力。
: j9 m5 h: W! `5 T" ~! @一、先说技术面
" E1 z j! `; K8 O; J这一点也是我在社区反复强调的，K线上我们经历了急跌，横盘，而最近的下跌完美符合预期的最后一跌！
, W( a2 B8 K2 M" _9 w4 a) ^7 ?3 r而我能做的就是让大家拿住，甚至也来到完美的定投区间，可以参考22年的走势，这是最后一跌！
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二、再看宏观
Q, I& q1 }2 J) g1 p以太坊2月日活跃地址维持在55万-70万 （主网），1-2月曾接近/突破100万 新高区间。7日/30日均线仍在上行，证明真实用户和DApp活跃度在增强。$ c4 d$ i* O7 l3 E
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|9 \0 n: v; i, z) }" Z* h* d2月7日单日交易量达2.896M历史最高，2月22日仍维持在170万 。2026年初整体较2025年同期大幅回升，稳定币和L2活动是主要驱动。
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ETH链上稳定币总供应约158-183B USD（占全球50%以上），2025-2026年持续爬升并创新高，说明稳定币持续增长！1 i7 [6 ~" [+ v+ B4 D9 k0 R
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+ I2 ^$ U& u4 [% t r+ d" s" t交易所ETH储备减少持续下降,全交易所ETH储备降至16.2M ETH（2016年以来最低），2026年初持续净流出。
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所以，结合质押锁定，有效流动供应大幅收紧（约45% ETH已illiquid）, 尽管ETH价格短期承压，但网络基本面在2026年2月正处于爆发前夜 z: J }/ V2 U3 R
三、机构在买，而不是跑
/ ]" w& k) |! @5 h散户恐慌，机构却在布局。ETF 资金流入恢复，企业金库在低位配置 ETH。 传统金融机构持续在以太坊上做代币化产品。
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7 W( r' B, Q4 b$ E0 g0 ^1月整体净流出2.53亿美元，但2月17日单日净流入4863万美元（BlackRock ETHA单日 2289万领跑），2月13日也曾翻正 1026万。
3 o/ c/ g' Z0 G9 ?近期虽有波动，但已出现多次正流入/零流出，累计AUM仍超115亿美元，显示机构在$1900附近开始重新布局。
; a& w* {# m7 S$ H% v2 w四、2026 年路线图聚焦 C; M7 u+ h5 ]+ \1 z
升级方向包括：: h6 N9 u! S6 Q1 {) e, Y- b
提升 Gas 上限" q5 s" v5 U4 Y2 p+ G
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增强 L2 互操作性
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* d5 f$ b; P/ j$ U) _0 ~扩展零知识基础设施, l0 ]+ j Z: J1 z9 J
- R# L9 q/ `- A' N4 B账户抽象4 S! B3 ^: ^ j7 I
5 F+ r8 O# X' I% ~抗量子安全% t6 t! }4 T8 e X
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Harden the L1：后量子密码、FOCIL抗审查、网络韧性测试，V神也强调“不再是UX vs 安全，而是提升安全的UX”
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所以，如果宏观稳定、资金回流，ETH 不需要炒作，只需要被重新定价。/ p9 M+ c& M8 q$ b5 V
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这不是盲目乐观，我坚信，冬天往往是最大反弹的起点。 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 75 小时
本月在线: 14 小时
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ETH 这价位确实有点诱人了，但真进去还得看后续怎么走 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 123 小时
本月在线: 17 小时
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这波跌得挺狠，但看数据好像真有人在默默抄底，心态得稳住啊 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 238 小时
本月在线: 13 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 13720 小时
本月在线: 46 小时
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