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[虚拟币交流]
分析人士解读比特币在特朗普新政权下举步维艰的背后原因（转）
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与普遍预期相反，唐纳德·特朗普的第二个美国总统任期对比特币价格产生了积极影响。尽管自特朗普1月份就职以来，这种旗舰加密货币的价格创下了历史新高，但市场总体上仍处于盘整和区间震荡阶段，整体趋势依然看跌。日本加密货币分析网站 XWIN Research 最近对 2024 年之后的市场狂热进行了比较分析，以解释为什么 2024 年之后的价格走势缺乏热情。
l" }. y8 m- [0 I& F8 w 分析师解释比特币的结构为何与 2016 年截然不同在[url=]快速帖子[/url]CryptoQuant是一家研究和教育机构，其对2016年和2024年大选后的时期进行了关键性比较。2016年特朗普胜选后，加密货币市场处于低通胀和低利率的环境下，这对于流动性不断增长的市场而言是理想的。此外，加密货币市场规模相对较小，使得投机性流动性能够迅速积累。因此，市场获得了充足的资金，从而推动了持续而强劲的上涨趋势。 然而，2025年初的市场环境和动态发生了变化。这一年伊始便进入高利率时期，金融状况日益恶化。此外，与2016年大选后的市场相比，市场规模扩大，加上众多投资者的参与，从根本上降低了ZZ事件对价格走势的独立影响。简而言之，政策实施本身几乎无法影响比特币的价格，尤其是在流动性受限的情况下。9 b, T: f" u% J* T* z4 D7 J
LTH-SOPR 比率进一步反映了谨慎态度XWIN Research Japan 还引用了比特币 SOPR 比率（LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR）的数据，该比率也印证了特朗普第二次就职后投资者谨慎的态度。比特币 SOPR 比率通过比较长期持有者与短期持有者获利的速度，来解读市场情绪，是判断价格趋势是由机构信念驱动还是投机交易驱动的重要指标。 研究团队指出，比特币的长期持有者（LTH）正在实现其有限的利润。而短期持有者则处于亏损状态。历史上，这种情况通常出现在市场即将进入漫长的供需调整阶段之时。  来源：CryptoQuant根据历史数据，比特币目前显然处于基本面看跌的结构中。尽管XWIN Research指出，“只要长期持有者保持相对主导地位，短期持有者的抛售被消化，下跌空间就可能得到支撑”，但同时也警告说，上涨空间也可能受到限制。 分析团队进一步推测，比特币ETF资金流入的稳定增长，以及LTH分配的明显贬值，将是比特币摆脱下跌螺旋的关键。在这两件事同时发生之前，比特币可能仍将维持目前的停滞状态，或者——在最糟糕的情况下——进一步下跌。截至发稿时，根据CoinMarketCap的数据，比特币的估值约为87,623美元，较上周小幅下跌0.5%，较过去24小时上涨0.6%。 / ]7 g& z8 I: Q d
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哈哈，看来大佬的分析也挺有意思，不过感觉币圈啥时候都不缺故事 |
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