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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心4 u o# n2 {0 L5 ~: {2 p& X: l5 v2 X' {
. ]( y) X& ?7 F! O8 O7 `/ H7 W衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
8 y- `! ?- j: _% Y6 l9 \0 D+ }美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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$ i: F! O$ R# T7 l0 L融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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5 d9 q% o! y0 M7 x1 \过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益/ t7 r6 e8 z, P5 ~+ `' D
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。% ^/ X" ?" K+ [+ C" `
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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1 U( H7 O i3 v是表示：3 _3 Z4 O* t* Q1 m
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币- ~8 }. E6 [0 f( ^
/ W8 ^ P6 ^+ M3 A特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：1 T- {+ j" o1 p' Q! K2 k$ i5 \# _* {
, U. I& z* W4 J* F; U% O. b周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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+ \7 K) `6 J% b( c( ~9 j! b周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。% i' f. e: e% a& G( z# o
# J3 y' U/ v. Z/ D& }- S& m* x5 |周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
& t$ b" H4 [* d% e& Y1 n
3 R* h/ f8 ]" R收益率冲高回落。
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7 J8 A, p1 l4 E6 w+ L9 v周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。# S, S( y* P* b1 e4 ~. C8 {
0 G& }# `: h: Q' }4 k周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，9 d8 t( i9 J/ j
; H8 s4 p0 z- X7 S" x& ]& O f是的，这正是我们所看到的。"% U% W$ W8 M; t) K: m
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去/ k0 }' A9 O; \: c! R) `# a
2 x* N' Z- _& L6 U年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。8 q& D- E v" z, c
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5 T4 K6 }( n( K# }/ E7 b% zRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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