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[lastpost] => 2797548 美国证券交易委员会结束调查后，Zcash价格飙升至430美元以上（转） 1768493080 叫我十三
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。9 H- J! l8 b7 X% z$ k+ D( M
& R# h7 R' @+ u- p5 b( ~9 K7 w: m1 W瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心$ c' u7 V! G/ h9 A
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
! a( c( y' r( [3 Y1 L8 x7 Q6 F美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金1 N V, h/ c4 }4 U8 c N [
$ m3 b. X- t8 X& [) J; K* f' m. V融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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9 b- W. F# S2 P" {( ~. d/ j过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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7 |/ f) q& ~; x0 E7 I8 M率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。$ K0 w8 M# f' ], i& m# _: A6 S, t
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国: k% j5 Z0 b" ?, D h
$ b& v& |6 B* |' j+ v9 I长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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7 {" X( h1 x. a9 i4 V- b是表示：1 H. R, {6 S; c: z1 z8 R; j
! @2 z" G" z) t9 u这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。+ n6 v. p* _' I, T/ D( w$ v: n6 E
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币: [& H1 |, n% M" S- {
: }0 Q# ?. M0 Q9 p0 O* ^特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史* E, x. J9 X1 k9 V
% S$ f! t' R% e- A6 a2 ?- B9 d标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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) _( _' z% O c. \周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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7 x0 s4 y* n6 H* i: f周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。' W; E8 [0 C: W$ S
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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+ |3 f3 r: ]! Q5 p" o5 E- O, N, x- P收益率冲高回落。6 @; u' N1 S) m: N
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
. C8 b5 V& X! z- K: J/ C
$ L( L3 J) f# K0 O周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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1 D: E% k8 I( b" [1 n' [$ GLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
" V/ p1 I! Z: T* k$ Q8 j; Z; l- b% h7 n$ P7 H. ]; r/ _4 Y: D5 O9 o
是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去% t# z5 ^, F* c4 j6 N0 Z; C0 B
! i$ }5 f5 ~2 u! h# O4 a4 \年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。/ H) D: P1 J7 v2 g2 x7 h8 y j7 ^2 k
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) p) N; `0 C& _7 U5 L1 y( i$ GRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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