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[lastpost] => 2804717 黑天鹅原来是它：本轮比特币暴跌的真正原因（转） 1770556787 jackcool1011
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币再次瞄准 10 万美元 – 看涨势头能否刺激投资者？（转）
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比特币 [BTC]开始采取行动夺回 100,000 美元的区域，截至发稿时，交易价格低于 98,215.61 美元，而过去 24 小时内价格小幅上涨了 0.42%。
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由于市场上大量投资者、现货交易商和矿工的看涨情绪日益高涨，预计涨势将持续，并有可能将 BTC 带入图表上的标记区域。+ X7 t5 g1 `8 L( F
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比特币重新分配正在进行
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目前，市场上的比特币正在重新分配。这意味着持有更多 BTC 的市场参与者群体正在转移。* q$ b2 Z# u9 V) h0 R/ f5 K
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目前，这种转变已经从持有至少 1% 流通 BTC 供应量的鲸鱼转向另外两类：持有少于1 BTC 的虾类和持有100-1,000 BTC 的鲨鱼。 M: h8 S+ _4 z6 R
9 f- [& ]2 v3 }6 q9 j. P L/ p然而，鲨鱼却占据了领先地位。3 I* g+ }% C# C" t+ [) w1 h
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% w* T+ W' m/ ^% W% r, L& c根据 Glassnode 的数据，比特币鲨鱼目前占据 20% 的主导地位，这意味着他们积累的 BTC 比任何其他群体都多。
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通过这种重新分配，特别是在小型和相对大型持有者之间的重新分配，表明这些群体的信心正在增强，他们可能将 BTC 跌破 100,000 美元视为买入机会。+ F$ S4 U* |3 x- @- R
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仔细观察比特币的 NUPL（净未实现利润/亏损）可以证实这一看涨趋势。) F2 \. S1 D/ p+ ?+ l0 ?* a
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当时，NUPL 显示市场处于“信念”阶段，或看涨持续阶段，截稿时读数为 0.556，表明整体购买活动活跃。' N* `- P( K& i6 n# d
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比特币矿工实现的利润微乎其微
0 a7 r A4 P0 z" f! N; nCryptoQuant 上的矿工持仓指数 (MPI) 表明，在维护区块链完整性方面发挥重要作用的比特币矿工正在逐渐抛售。% K3 @/ j% j+ F6 Z
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本文撰写时，MPI 读数为负 0.8，表明抛售压力较低。这表明矿工可能正在获利回吐以弥补运营成本。+ h" R$ Y3 P1 U4 g$ `- g
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( o# K( M0 ]: S1 C/ L; k0 _' l一旦此阶段结束，这些矿工可能会逐渐开始再次购买 BTC，增加他们的投资组合并为市场带来潜在的看涨压力。5 ]% s% S3 @. v' h
7 g8 q5 ~& x% a ^% z现货交易商调整7 y7 r# V4 G$ B
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现货交易商开始顺应市场情绪，因为最近几天 BTC 的购买活动非常活跃。" A7 r. A, Q% B+ e T, x1 m
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仅在过去 24 小时内，Exchange Netflow 数据显示，从加密货币交易所购买了 1,100 BTC，较前一天购买的 262 BTC 大幅增加。- V7 y) ~, P8 j2 T. r: U
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' E* P' Q* Y0 \( H/ a' @如果这种购买趋势持续下去，则表明现货交易商的看涨情绪将明显转变，与 BTC 投资者团体和矿工当前的情绪一致。: i8 b3 m. t; n3 n/ |2 B
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