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[lastpost] => 2769327 Pi币价格预测:价格自历史高点暴跌91%——但神秘巨鲸为何仍在买入?-转 1758962429 rainwang
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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% J& M3 {$ \+ s0 i# I. d8 CPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。6 [2 `+ {# h" L$ o2 ~
0 ]( R. r% H+ x: Q& |% q3 CCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。% r0 ?- O4 L" |& Q- s* t
0 g& b4 V" C/ A% o- c2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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% V# m* K* b; \' V5 [当前持仓成本:9 }$ \7 Z" V# c: q, k8 S5 U+ o1 p
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;0 G& R' `' w* f$ ^) U
& ^. V9 Q& w/ x" @微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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比特币价值回归:/ E6 \2 z$ u% h7 H$ o
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。6 t- z q, L9 }% @$ _: \7 C
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随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。4 m) o$ A( m D4 O. @
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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3 H3 M' ]8 U" @5 H8 W. P) u! ~0 ^3. 市场热点与反弹情况( [! g# B" G O( X' U' x% H
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ETH:
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: J D [8 N1 `3 \: O虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。: j& T2 |2 s" F$ n
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BTC:
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; g- T, I* T% f9 G% l- F尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。; c/ }% c% g! b2 \; Z: n
0 Z$ v+ A8 L {6 nSOL与XRP:3 j' R! _8 h- ?3 K# Y$ Z
% n. s( \& O8 o u, F! w4 CSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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: ~1 x4 y6 n: o5 [XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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2 i9 C, ]8 F) L; ]/ n6 I8 f其他热点项目:$ d7 g' [+ {* B, O3 C1 x- s) P
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。' K9 t- M' j1 R% N: O; R
' B$ E+ L$ q* @+ [+ o, Y蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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) [, G: t3 `: N$ ^" j x新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。+ z/ G0 h6 B/ i* K
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市场展望
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0 ~+ ~7 b1 B3 p0 L随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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