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[lastpost] => 2768965 又涨疯,比特币突破60000美元!为什么涨?有哪些风险?一文看懂比特币挖矿江湖 1758854685 小希哥
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势; v9 J. _2 n3 C; t Z
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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4 Y/ ]) E6 n% ^# E& i8 VPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。2 F. g9 ] w& D( [, O: D7 W$ Y
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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当前持仓成本:5 f- V% o" V6 c4 W, u
: P) L5 E1 K6 _' G+ V机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;/ }9 @& X6 k, Z1 W" Q* i0 p1 l! ?& B
7 u( s; |5 V$ f. x' p8 w7 k# g. q微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;% V" b0 x% k4 O
0 _6 W/ ^2 p ?3 M% LETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。# M& n2 s) Z/ O/ u
9 k0 K' J! r3 ~5 {8 L比特币价值回归:
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7 |0 m6 H" s1 G0 p+ B市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。 y) x, U- _8 s+ w
6 l$ U( U" N! ]7 O; m( s5 e随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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$ C/ Y4 i7 L- G- Z4 }7 Z/ v' @- u加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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ETH:
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$ E, J3 i9 C+ x& K5 H9 [虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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& }5 t: ?7 q. g& l机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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BTC:! l0 Y7 T" i5 f1 ?
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。 h2 E9 C' ^. Q: i+ X
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。. G, g0 ^( j2 [# v; \& z9 H
; O* H: I, K x. A kSOL与XRP:
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0 F9 S. P1 N2 W. }1 KSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。0 }0 s& i5 ~% v2 z9 w. @- ]8 a
/ q) U% I4 r$ a, X5 p O) \: SXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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& P2 Y/ ?3 T# r) z w' T0 w其他热点项目:! z/ M6 o R3 p; b* ]5 L! v' S4 |
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。: W/ L) L9 f3 S/ v
5 D, W: F# V. S9 I& J9 g2 q山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目% u1 v7 D4 d7 q3 T3 X) n
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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% E, ` D* K8 E4 v1 [: o( \ x" ~蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。; g; b+ J/ U& ~9 P
7 Y/ l) n; p ?9 z- G新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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0 J# B" c3 l. E& Q) A市场展望
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。6 ]: Z: |: b; s! R/ P0 M, `
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