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[lastpost] => 2768025 加密货币已不再是单纯的炒币...现在可用币买房买车交学费,连“冷冻身体”都行... 1758903906 天策-瑶娥
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势: n( q/ `3 s$ K' v
' m: l: h- k7 Z0 f& P过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。 B+ Z% \2 P6 \2 C, Z3 z) W6 G2 h
! K6 H& \6 \# G; _/ v8 J+ d- B5 ePPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。+ `- Q7 w& ]: y% V0 x% d
$ c$ \( Y; A) y+ h1 a4 J% ICPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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当前持仓成本:+ ]$ n) o! U1 D3 L/ y- H6 ]+ d
, m+ Z5 t7 X' d' f' F( o机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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t" b5 r$ ?6 ~( {2 J+ K# i; B微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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. X1 r( O% z% Y. |( w+ Q0 ~ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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' F, k$ [. }5 A4 z比特币价值回归:, }8 Z% U3 y. _3 a+ m" _& S( \
. g( k5 z3 S3 V$ b市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。6 h: x/ A5 B1 ^$ ^9 |& Q' _9 }
5 z! _0 D1 D3 B0 r" v随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。7 n6 M8 e; P; w! }& q6 f9 Z
' A! @/ c3 h7 c; K0 ]3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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& i" V g( S. E3 E: D8 T虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。0 |2 q$ g- ]( |3 X9 m3 @! l# F
b8 X) {% h4 J3 X( J& n( r7 L2 l机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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BTC:5 b; I0 R' Z0 x \; s$ y
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。/ R# G6 R% g" J2 w
f2 F# y% h! G+ Q) _. cSOL与XRP:, n. o3 a0 w3 u6 l7 k$ Q
N2 v0 K" @6 ASOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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* a- Q6 I7 J/ y( w6 W- q; E/ v9 _XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。' `3 ~7 K- f2 _
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其他热点项目:
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% z' ?8 v( X% J: k9 C) O2 H3 \涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。1 ]3 M1 v' K; V) r. O) L% \4 m R
& a7 z9 O3 r) d \3 ?7 T& z4. AI赛道与新兴项目7 g/ w9 h# c0 ~- L
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。2 G& M0 q! p- j. i( L
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。3 m) o. j# f% k$ ^
% o3 Z9 w. p* A5 \/ ^7 J6 E- M新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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市场展望) W! C. T. ^- }7 q
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。( E* O6 M7 }5 v6 z' a
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