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[虚拟币交流]
比特币形成了一个局部底部:比特币能从这里走高吗?(转)
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比特币[BTC]在以色列和伊朗之间的地缘ZZ紧张局势急剧下降后,表现出了韧性。截至发稿时,比特币的交易价格约为62000美元,显示出夺回63000美元水平的迹象。- I) P Y3 r# p$ @6 t4 q
! U' }- L- I0 D# X最近多头头寸的清算可能已经建立了一个局部底部,表明BTC可能会进一步上涨,这个底部是本月的低点。 \2 u/ [- M9 w% A! X
( J- w) I# Y6 I在大幅下跌期间,长期合约通常会因清算而大幅下跌,从而减轻抛售压力。
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3 ?; |2 d7 A& a- u+ \; ^关键流动性水平保持稳定,高于新闻发布时的价格68900美元至69300美元,低于新闻发布时价格56800美元至57400美元。' {5 x8 _6 d' G7 `
2 [4 V* b2 H# x# a7 V% {) K: l' e一个新的流动性集群也出现在66500美元至66800美元的区间,这表明价格可能很快就会瞄准这一区域。
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尽管比特币的价格在55K美元至75K美元之间波动了200多天,但比特币仍然处于稳固的地位。2 z1 j' Y+ Z& e9 g7 \0 t1 A
; a3 Y) b. Q& L" T B+ _
它在周线图上交易高于100周移动平均线(100MA),在宏观层面保持强势。. x" q" x% N4 L% X' N
- d# _2 ?( X5 R% L值得注意的是,BTC现在比最新的比特币减半时间晚了170天,历史模式显示,新的历史高点(ATH)往往在前一个周期的峰值后约1080天形成。
! F4 b4 E. [, x% Q6 J# Z" v( ?1 @+ \ y8 J( L
这表明,如果历史证明是正确的,比特币可能会从目前的水平走高。
; I( ]& F$ N# r* F7 S( a1 ]. F. g( `+ x/ d$ d a, b( p
Coinbase高级指标' f* `8 Z; ^7 s( P9 T
CryptoQuant上的Coinbase Premium工具加剧了这一看涨前景,该工具突显了BTC的短期增长。5 F' [- i. R& X& L
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当黄金十字架形成时,如之前的价格走势所示,比特币通常会经历短期上涨。这一指标进一步证明,BTC可能会从目前的本地底部上涨。% A. g( W* m2 X3 b0 f
. r& o2 U& T- F" ]2 s+ V美国比特币现货ETF需求, e: X w2 |5 |& b1 e* N
美国现货ETF对比特币的需求也在上升。9月初,现货ETF是净卖家,但到本月底,他们已经购买了7000 BTC,这是自2021年7月以来的最高水平。4 M0 ?+ j4 R9 {1 E) V
0 n+ H- _ O; j+ T( U2 \+ h2024年第一季度,现货ETF每天购买近9000 BTC,将价格推至新高。如果这种购买趋势继续下去,比特币的价格可能会在2024年最后一个季度进一步上涨。
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4 u$ y; t7 z N鲸鱼保持稳定0 d0 w+ x- B- y" S
此外,大型比特币持有者,或“鲸鱼”,表现出历史上较低的获利回吐水平,表明对未来价格增长的信心。
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" ?+ Y- g6 @) L. \; ^鲸鱼一直在不同的地址分发他们的BTC,现在只有1975个地址持有1000到10000个BTC。
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尽管最近出现了一些抛售,但与之前的周期相比,鲸鱼的利润微乎其微,这进一步支持了比特币价格将从这里上涨的观点,因为它们寻求最大化收益。
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