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[虚拟币交流]
美股上涨，长端利率上升打击BTC流动性资产，今年牛市难以实现（转）
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美股和比特币的逻辑不同:美股上涨主要是由Gamma对冲和CTA推动，不太受联储降息与否的影响。一旦不确定性被解决，美股往往会直线拉升。
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6 g# B1 H% e& c) `% P降息对比特币流动性资产受影响更大，但不仅限于此。降息影响的是短期利率，而长端利率对风险资产影响更大。例如，一次0.25个百分点的升息，1 b/ B' C0 ?, b8 G
6 ~- F9 Q6 G/ u* p* h) D/ \; P% x* {1 u, i若10年期利率上升25个基点，其影响力远大于单次升息。七大公司股票不依靠流动性支撑，而是由引力支撑。例如，英伟达的PE长期保持稳定，主
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# t# Q4 q$ O* w6 Z要依靠每股收益（EPS）和AI业务的增长推动。; d0 W5 @/ P+ j4 x( L8 W
市场上承担风险的资产分为活期资产和长期风险资产。活期资金投向银行存款、短期债券等，长期资金投向比特币、股票、长期国债等。当10年期
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$ K9 n6 X/ B, D+ Z; R3 q国债收益率高于股票收益率时，投资者更倾向于购买国债而非股票。如果这种情况发生，表明市场处于晚期阶段，风险资产特别是比特币将受重创。
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长端利率上升对所有风险资产都有较大影响，尤其是比特币等流动性风险资产。- }( m3 l4 Z% O( f
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美国从去年开始大规模发债，但经济依然强劲，利率在5.25-5.5%。通常情况下，升息会导致经济衰退，但美国经济的增长本质已改变。经济增长依赖0 T4 [! }5 N0 x, V* s- K
# w- ^2 o8 C( k" B于私营部门和ZF债务的加权平均。2 i- I6 T: G7 q0 h
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. b W/ \ a; ?, f3 h$ P美国ZF通过持续发债来支撑经济，但这也导致市场供需矛盾加剧。2023年美国债券市场的DV01 约为7亿美元，今年预计将增加到10亿美元。财政部
2 b. X' `( r1 r1 M9 L3 Q; q6 @; V6 R+ Q- G6 a- O; g4 K% j
被迫发行长期债券，而市场上长期债券的买方主要是高盛那些对冲基金，这些基金通过短期低利率资金购买长期高利率债券来赚取利差。然而，当前长, a: k/ b( ^) a' C& ]3 z
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短期利率倒挂，缺乏买家，导致长期债券需求不足。预计10年期长端利率接近5%，这对比特币和黄金等无收益的流动性资产是巨大打击。比特币目前) m* [" N7 Q: v2 p6 q4 y1 Y
b7 w2 z1 _" P7 Y依靠套利维持，但在流动性减少的情况下，山寨币可能归零。总体来看，流动性资产难以进入牛市，只有当长端利率下降，市场才可能迎来转机，但今7 a0 s8 L" I' k% z1 B" p+ _7 v& I
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年难以看到这种改变。0 M( I1 m! I$ w6 Q& X
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