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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘' b7 \- F( ^# l8 b8 r' Z
     
9 U3 P1 P6 y2 h  b8 T     平手中水,主队有利
& x1 @! F( W5 Y6 v# D7 g) a     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。2 O, z% _: S  u! f+ K# E
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
2 s: U( O5 Q! u# z% o     英超主队0 [8 r. L) C$ I* Y/ H: v
     胜:13场 48%+ S$ {0 ^( r7 i% Z2 o
     平:5场 17%
. z/ N3 i& \& K" \0 f     负:9场 35%( d1 K' X( r9 t  b
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
5 K3 `) G8 y0 n8 D7 _8 T     
+ P1 b- I$ M8 p( F     一、初盘阶段: k: s" a. T/ F7 x) I& @
     具体到水位如下:
! B# O  f6 U7 `, Z' B     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
5 y; _7 ~6 S8 t: F; |$ T+ [- _     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负, d& [5 J7 G9 Q3 @4 f
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
; W: m1 b( b( ?8 y4 v     ' H) |- w4 L6 Q# I
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。+ a- Z1 S; q4 I6 n/ x; j
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
, y. h( d& N5 H* S     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
( S  B6 g+ |  y, Z+ i+ N     & G; v7 D, d# L/ B" t
     二、临场阶段
- y: N+ k6 I' D7 z/ L: O+ c! n4 {, {     
- |, }# K# V# D6 ?     具体到变盘和水位如下:5 n4 a$ f& X) \! c6 ~& l) R0 w
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负( l8 B4 ~5 x6 t# H. r
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负7 g* |8 @/ a5 g, K1 O; z! U
     $ w/ I- i2 M) X! H6 ~
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。6 x8 s" ~# n  e* o/ r
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:, w9 b' b2 k8 m# z( M$ M3 X- S5 K1 ?+ s
     
8 r/ m0 g0 ^6 c2 f$ _( h     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿' h- }- A/ v/ D9 k2 f; i
     初盘:0.82平手1.04, n3 m9 j8 u: H2 @& R
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.855 s; K3 O. b6 N# w
     
4 e+ F/ j, r3 q( O     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
0 @5 @2 v1 @- S7 Z9 c+ M2 T     初盘:0.76平手1.10) U7 |  K9 s* T6 b
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
* G+ R  J: F; _     
& b# m1 E+ t9 m6 N. j7 w' t8 c. X     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技5 _- j+ {* F1 B8 ?; D7 b( k# P1 h
     初盘:0.82平手1.04' |& B; i& l' a  o1 m
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
+ W# {+ A& D, b5 T       w/ X, H; ]$ G
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
3 O- }: X- }; T% q     初盘:0.88平手0.98
! s3 G/ ~- w/ G# ^* u4 z6 J6 R2 d     终盘:1.12平/半0.745 w  K/ n, C9 \/ B# {- P
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。% M8 D/ p  X; F* o# v+ C
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。) \/ ]6 @/ C+ l- B$ f  a
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
7 T2 z, y0 F8 a, t     
6 E6 T3 k% g  s2 }. u     三、球队表现
3 f7 j, N  @& g2 a. T" X( ?, x5 M     
5 {( @3 Q7 n7 P1 U% s+ `' P     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。( k; g0 \6 P! L! L* d) y
     
$ Z$ l  ?" a* \; K4 h5 m  d; `8 w2 J     四、投注要点
1 W, T6 P( s) x. s6 c- h' w) q     要点1:平手中水、主多不败  \1 K* \- }8 X# X, t
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
0 h7 T* |; o8 X' m     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
" V! e! `4 X: D, u8 H  U! B# }     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大2 U) s1 E0 {' \6 s" ^3 o6 f/ S( \
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任) [% J$ W7 f3 _, v+ i- c6 Q: ~
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
9 \5 e7 z" q- J1 S7 c9 b     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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