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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘4 c% E( B* A6 G
     
* V. R( o* C" C     平手中水,主队有利
. `0 |" u) B) f+ D# [! ^' y& O     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。1 ]. d( V5 S& z# `9 s
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:! O/ N; H1 b: Z. P
     英超主队
' T; D; z$ Y' o# W     胜:13场 48%
- \- S. X# ]7 \4 W$ F' b     平:5场 17%
" Y! U3 x" ^4 j0 R2 f& J9 E     负:9场 35%9 p) {; N0 d+ u( }" b) v
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。" j8 X# D, Y, S# M# g. L& A
     % }$ c7 V, o" g  Q* M& C4 y
     一、初盘阶段
0 @# x3 k9 J5 g     具体到水位如下:
) z" ]9 C% @' k0 e* f     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负. c& v4 C# n& h# C- H; z$ c6 A, j
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负. V6 [; n" ~5 `0 K& l; K3 e. o
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
  a( Y% b# U4 y, e4 V+ U$ Y     
: C0 w# G: y& V# v! i1 b     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
/ l2 w' S! [& U4 h; v     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。! F: ?$ Y. p9 L9 J  |" e
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。6 U; a1 p9 r# M1 x. I# H9 H
     
5 Z0 L" x4 ?( G1 |/ [9 d% f' ]0 \" B     二、临场阶段
. x9 W; Y& [- Q" I     / h, A7 Z; w! P5 V) e$ k( j# m
     具体到变盘和水位如下:& a$ i0 F: e2 K  p0 g
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负) e+ S8 Q7 l+ O* p* u
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
6 k/ D; o4 q* ~+ @  t     ! k3 g4 W# D) r/ e
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。3 X0 S3 @( j, {$ m; J
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:) G9 q/ r  E- }; ~& C1 ]. @2 m6 {
       u* n$ D- n7 r8 q% k+ E8 h
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
+ X3 q& j8 v( K* }' u     初盘:0.82平手1.04' [, u, ^6 k1 c5 M+ z; b0 R) ^9 `) K
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
; I" X' g( M" u# q+ _8 n% r1 D     
% P7 N# B, }  x4 P% w     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
, Z( J% D- s  U! u     初盘:0.76平手1.108 v8 y5 O( N/ W
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
3 C, ~0 m9 l; {1 c) s     % Q9 B5 E  b, F
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技, K8 @0 N+ X3 U6 q( V* N& g
     初盘:0.82平手1.04& q6 [0 `: x& P3 M
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.988 T7 }1 `7 v; n. y
     3 @( Z- F  P# p0 _% ^' s: ]- Q9 U
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
7 b  R5 a$ c, M6 e2 O, i' X     初盘:0.88平手0.98
: K# d8 S' m5 x     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
6 H2 r) N* T- w' c: i+ R3 h     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。! j4 `4 X/ B  s: i# t
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。4 R* U( l) C6 i" ?* h/ h4 z
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
+ e0 a8 ^1 i" }; t4 S  x) Y     
8 O5 ~+ a3 E6 E4 c     三、球队表现4 e  p% B$ N$ ^6 J, _0 I
     2 C7 @; G+ f: h+ S  J
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。8 o3 k, M: T. H- l
     
" o2 T$ ]+ X' ~; c! J     四、投注要点
: \2 `) F* Y2 r9 f     要点1:平手中水、主多不败$ t& D9 l8 b0 B
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
# E, l/ \, A2 r7 \     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败) P4 p  V. z$ U/ F% b7 _
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大8 R8 ^  T' Q; G* _% h1 m$ p- ^& [
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
- W+ M$ y( P' Z/ a, D+ A     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
" e5 V& R4 X- b9 ~5 f  m# i# ]: M) s     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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