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[lastpost] => 2816464 明天将迎来四巫日，市场严阵以待，应对比特币可能出现的波动。（转） 1773939240 jackcool1011
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在经历了美国SEC官方账号被盗的乌龙后，SEC批准比特币ETF终于尘埃落定。* s& f4 I. m5 ?1 P3 l6 m' \- }: p
上海社会科学院信息研究所助理研究员王滢波对21世纪经济报道记者表示，美国SEC正式批准比特币现货ETF上市交易，这无疑是加密货币的破圈时刻，将为以比特币为代表的加密货币带来巨大的发展机遇。9 h# L0 e0 u/ w
9 W3 }8 ?, }3 w+ n1 G
比特币ETF历时10年终于上市，这将改变比特币的投资面貌，让机构和散户投资者- M/ z8 S. k# M4 H: D& v) I
3 t; _4 u1 G1 C c' V8 O. X F: t( J( G, C$ f$ r5 }
在不直接持有比特币的情况下，也能投资比特币。( B4 J$ d: h7 q. @
4 l% R' Q u0 m w8 D- K9 R
在上海财经大学金融学院副院长曹啸看来，2021年10月SEC批准比特币期货ETF上市，
1 |+ d& C3 H! f9 ] Y* }
1 G# Z4 D) y2 ?9 S如今又批准了比特币现货ETF上市，申请发行比特币ETF的机构不乏贝莱德这样的传统
; K5 ^& k9 n. m, {+ h8 M6 w5 W) c4 j
资管机构，这进一步确认了比特币的资产属性，比特币实际上已经成为主流的配置资产。
7 R$ i7 C* [& |4 t) X: s8 s2 I D, N/ ~ ]% y% E' R5 [
从运作模式看，发行商们将从加密货币交易所购买实物比特币，并交由Coinbase Global等
- g) P& C. F; [5 a9 |" A
3 _1 w& M# r7 E4 V5 Y托管机构储存，再由后者发行ETF。这些比特币ETF将在纳斯达克、纽约证券交易所和芝加
. q" `) @7 d2 K0 u8 y5 {0 m
2 V0 n" s# p. f. C哥期权交易所上市。此外，为了解决SEC对市场操纵方面的担忧，纳斯达克和芝加哥期权交! q( G, {+ ]) h& i
$ `! E' }7 H* h6 D9 d* `
易所已经与美国最大的加密货币交易所Coinbase建立了一个市场监督机制。
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D; u2 y K4 _% g天朝（上海）自贸区研究院金融研究室主任刘斌对21世纪经济报道记者表示，这次比特币
4 R; X6 ~ M t5 n' d) l+ ~- n
5 y0 Q* ~# t- ~; X KETF通过，也说明美国监管部门对比特币的态度发生较大变化，根本原因还是美国已经围
5 x/ q$ r A/ h% ]
5 t6 S- P( T8 J4 W绕比特币等加密货币建立起相应的监管框架。以比特币为代表的加密货币被多数金融机构
- } T+ s' e, _/ z6 { G, {
* s% W; t8 r( {, g' Z所接受，很多金融机构正围绕比特币等开发相关产品。. }/ @6 _1 a x, u+ P( E: d4 t" Z
( ` O2 t2 z! y/ Z1 j2 \1 f* r3 w! H
在比特币ETF获批后，市场乐观情绪升温。作为超级乐观者的代表，美国投资机构Fundstrat 9 B1 i/ \. w* W F U0 J- Z& V
) n$ Q( I' j1 w) S# X d& oGlobal Advisors联合创始人兼研究主管Tom Lee甚至表示，随着ETF获得批准，需求激增，
# l {$ y* p7 G5 @& N0 l5 p0 X# J' q& T4 @
比特币可能在未来12个月内跃升至10万至15万美元，超过2021年11月达到的约6.9万美元, K* w" c; m! Y( U
6 B/ e4 a% i8 B. L+ C
的历史高点。在未来五年内，比特币可能飙升至50万美元。: M. c/ U) ? X+ S
9 L4 D y* R, n( {" I% M4 K不过，更大的意义并不在此。曹啸表示，美国SEC批准比特币ETF对于比特币市场的影响本身% N2 T/ u" x: c4 o: u
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并不重要，重要的是反映了美国监管机构的意图：通过比特币市场的发展，引导金融机构和, Y8 c: ~; i0 \2 Z
5 P8 G1 S) h3 t s0 ~; V- N
科技公司在区块链技术及其运用上进行投入，从而促进美国金融体系的创新发展。" j( J5 ] T# Y% N0 T
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