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[lastpost] => 2797541 随着美伊紧张局势加剧，比特币或将跌破 9.6 万美元大关（转） 1768666218 叫我十三
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5 r' @* o5 d% h5 r. r9 Z加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为; r$ s$ {# _: V; v Z
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，+ ?$ q. k( _7 u" ]7 d
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
0 h& U6 _3 _4 P: }7 a一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
) R( a' G$ t, N# i a: x; zBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。- r, d+ v4 @( f9 k8 F+ j
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：+ V, t8 M( n1 e& M, S; U/ q9 G+ f% B
2024年4月第四次减半0 N+ |: c0 P+ v
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
0 K$ b7 L6 \3 B5 Q. w, j d% e可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)2 v. |0 D l6 `; ?, G
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
' q" ]; A# y9 E1 R0 R二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务5 } ~6 |# r; `7 w
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。8 D% o: P& u/ Z7 G
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠* O) j% |4 Z* Z# W
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
[. q+ B- W9 O2 X三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁2 b: ^4 S/ G, G r# |+ a' o4 W* k
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统5 X0 o- K( r% v5 f9 v' G1 f
金融(TradFi)产品。" H9 I, x9 q {) [
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
A. G3 {( [7 P* p链桥」的项目。) L% O3 p& Y5 S; l8 ?; U5 I; X- e
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉9 t+ l6 b7 Q3 T( X
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
6 t5 p$ p% a% _1 O等。* u- f9 F& e& P/ U
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
- y- C/ u8 E. g' w! i$ y) W在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
( S0 u5 Y+ y9 X' y: D五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
$ }4 x& y0 w, S) ePantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位3 X5 Y( H6 l4 R; q# `) K0 o
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。/ a/ ~9 r. W- v" A9 ~1 m
Pantera点名了几个项目：( y! u. X1 \; P! [3 t4 C
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图9 [* a9 R% k* \ }8 C
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台/ o% d& C4 K, N4 j+ d/ f' b
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品 C. Y' Z, q* z; q9 A5 O
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划0 P: h3 q, q; D. l: ?
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
9 k: n; O$ q4 K六、小型公链需专注特定应用
* A9 W/ f& h" X1 v( ^. @& VPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
7 I9 I0 `( Y0 {至能直接与L2竞争。 z* Z9 C" K: O0 R* p
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。) R3 X8 V: C+ P0 h E+ l H
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地/ ]0 ?2 G- \' K
成为「应用链」。
) \+ Z. O/ {: @4 b+ B5 v事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。. A5 X" u* v- ~6 u4 B0 n
; ?2 m7 p* t% `* Y2 k# j3 B
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