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' J5 Z2 Q' E f9 Z. @' ^
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
6 w8 ?. \$ I$ V* s$ nDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
- a' l+ ^" m: J1 V) B$ y9 R J衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
2 A4 ^9 n7 j1 {$ w8 `0 c一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.07 o9 }3 Y; _ S; W7 R& y9 Y
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。) ^$ E: S4 f" @$ k2 L2 b( {
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
" T4 n* E" D3 m g3 S5 y ]; c- I2024年4月第四次减半* n) [: i% t' M
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF2 S: p4 s. p% J/ j
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
9 m- H( `9 [. R( \' H' Z针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
* G, y$ E- {6 d! k二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
6 Y+ e3 g0 g. I( l' {friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。9 ~8 \5 ~ K$ Y% x' M
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
, ]: t- d& }9 Q# E) v( p) z/ S诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
- Z$ I0 W- P) |4 }- P三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
. l8 L& R/ g1 U6 q0 B5 U% w除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统5 B7 c5 ? D! {$ `, P
金融(TradFi)产品。6 w3 a3 W) d0 R- o/ G7 c1 n* Q" @5 T
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨: Y) G% ^) y- F4 t6 H: [
链桥」的项目。7 t7 }4 {1 r5 i$ N# ^/ i
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉7 F; {1 K$ y# X" F
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作* i) D4 T& {( s& S
等。
0 j! I6 g* s5 @8 G4 l& vPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
; n" M0 R- a8 ]. z( w/ d% N在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
' }! W5 ~1 G' y$ b( ^$ U' H1 v五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
0 h6 \7 h, P+ r- u8 q3 N. G( `Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位0 s* i' h' l1 d6 d
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
$ L6 u# i5 z k. ^Pantera点名了几个项目：0 t+ B- z+ Z1 k0 X
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
. X4 P. f; g% R) LBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台' {4 z' w" U; A6 O) h1 ^
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
1 k# d' T$ t) @2 h- xThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划
2 d% A0 y: R7 n2 i' u5 i: o- oRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游9 ^* R- |, \3 G6 q) y
六、小型公链需专注特定应用
, r' M0 f( g1 s) [) c# X" |Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚 b" G M4 |6 z7 F" X+ V/ M9 R
至能直接与L2竞争。
. {" ]% q4 ~4 w1 V$ s4 S( g' e+ I也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
1 ~& ~/ w) m3 c1 @+ G QPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
9 ?4 p2 L7 e( I# B& T; s成为「应用链」。# j. V ^& n; |8 H9 j- F
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
( b) t# c' L$ N, K) z* n$ T- [7 \% ]' U" R9 k
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