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[lastpost] => 2816407 今年降息最多1次！美股全线暴跌！难道比特币又要跌到6万？（转） 1773949366 叫我十三
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人) b" y0 U3 `3 v" u: @2 x/ B/ J
2 f0 \7 R& V/ J+ @( c
认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，; w, X. Z" `! m( p' h6 J
0 s! }! _7 \* S7 ^$ R' A u而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
5 X* a* ^$ J6 l) J% H; U" F
& [4 ?4 Z" v' @的千禧一代。
2 a$ b8 R: @; w* F0 P/ T从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB: ^- w4 g9 @! o0 f4 H; {7 e
+ |- V0 E/ v$ Q. S t' y7 g% ^7 x/ J
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
# Y. Y! S5 |1 E& N8 x. ^$ O% v! o0 [* ^! d( F
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加# A. {' \4 \+ r% h% c: ]
# @. g2 D$ z0 m; I- N* l8 E! g
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
% @8 J4 W0 z# v4 A+ C2 s( a
9 ]8 b2 {& L% l) M0 a: J6 X& S$ E; t, @《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成: a1 L% ]( @% n+ \* |
4 k1 _. |& U u( g j的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
* t! |/ w6 x8 O2 y' w
# c* P5 n0 D/ D报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；6 Q* H, K4 Z9 G, E! _5 p
) h$ U, R7 s4 `) s x) \- @10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
1 c- N& Q+ a3 F6 P0 b
( Z0 m' [/ e; @+ p3 \: ^5 X" PETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
$ }% N' b# e* g: y& \/ _+ ]* D- K$ s* }2 m' r
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
4 c. e$ V5 ~2 W
) b; j7 v/ V* B5 B4 q( I息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。& b R8 [" ]- y& Y
! {& H4 Q2 ?, x0 t, U1 J1 @与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
7 X9 l' {. p) a E& K& v; ^" R P7 f+ x( L2 q
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富$ ]' S( l" X# x* R, |. Y4 [
( L2 }$ ~9 b! k- l传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
4 q/ ^# c$ A, d5 s. h/ r* k6 Z' c) Y( R ~! {
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一8 x# a. X0 S9 _7 x1 d9 T& s
& m" b* X* U- f8 t代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
, P# O5 \1 I( T
2 c/ y8 j, M8 X8 O# L0 y本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
8 p' g( A# z4 m8 i* @- A0 T$ Y7 D
8 _3 C! ?9 }9 }( p+ D系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
/ ~. n! T! z$ f7 B: [
9 B8 w8 k- X# \& e, f: p币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
. ~5 K. w! `8 ], o7 d- y- q6 {4 {4 x0 ?/ f( Z1 H6 Z" }
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
; g8 g( f& t0 }* b" B) O! W5 ]# y7 D! R
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
$ D! C8 l, _* Q3 `( R# ]' C4 Q' i/ \/ l1 x
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