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[lastpost] => 2797992 今日虚拟币市场还是涨的币居多一点 1768663743 jackcool1011
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人9 y7 ?( C0 ]. _/ A$ r6 n7 I% J, z
5 Q8 v: H! i2 F. Y" y' s7 N0 {+ J8 E6 \
认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，' F+ Y( a% @5 g4 s( y
) l }% H$ t6 j- U/ g而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富% _9 [1 I& M$ ]* p `+ y) Y5 n' e
% A, [( e4 m# @1 x( c' D" J的千禧一代。
6 T0 E, J" _8 D5 l+ t从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB; Q( F0 y, T1 M5 w6 M
$ \* u4 L( B# ~的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“- B2 y* K' y; O4 \/ ~3 R J0 ?
5 ^" C+ ~3 R* T% S3 n0 y' O' J; G 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
* p, T3 i! N+ ]2 y0 y) e6 K9 P& Q4 N: t+ [" [; A
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据. N! _& i6 v! Y$ |
( D+ ^3 b2 A5 i1 {1 O: ]《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
+ T! I1 W, ?' x' j$ j- _% U Y) _: c. ?, G2 W$ A! W
的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》$ K7 |# Y: }3 m5 O& i" l
! m" y' w6 k/ J. F9 M) X: w4 X报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；# r0 K$ a, S U- x' [( @
% P; o' \5 J* S9 B W10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
: A9 @4 g* m, v7 z; B* N* ]' b; Y
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。* q5 e. a! `) C$ k9 O
8 F8 X7 w+ { m. \, Z( u. j据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
5 z1 D! ^7 ?& b" _
# m+ S# \; m# U7 u+ z# ?1 ~3 t息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
% p5 x, k' V6 w% L1 S4 O
( U9 w- o' e9 y与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
" @2 j4 a e" B7 t6 e* v6 I! a" |- M0 X
1 N1 X o+ {# Q# o- A) B4 [: v世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富! g" A# i$ t( M" V, u8 w
$ j0 I3 L) O; D9 o9 k, u; w1 }* k$ f传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不 E q) k! }2 n7 C
8 D( s( U: i: O' d到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一$ F1 Z8 K/ N4 Q8 R1 A
% O$ S# Q- B9 v9 W) \代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成" D1 v, \2 j- ~ M5 Q2 N# I
% [7 p8 }5 X' H' ]: K
本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体 U% f7 t* H8 k; |
7 T) H3 u1 _3 T* r% M) D& `1 J
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
9 U" d3 m+ U5 e" \ |0 p: ` c4 U+ m$ O
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
! C4 G% M& i$ K, b8 _9 L8 B# h" ^, W: H5 {
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富" |: w- p& w+ v
+ g1 w) ^, a }% `, ]+ x/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。7 ^" o. w1 U! r U
: N' b/ x8 w: ^% l
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