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[lastpost] => 2784858 分析师警告——比特币不太可能在2025年出现“圣诞行情”（转） 1768646627 g9527
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
& i' V, S9 a3 _) V0 \
4 a2 \5 W& U2 X7 q, g1 U认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
0 U$ W" G4 q/ }1 ^% Y- A3 F) U( b8 }$ z2 `( P
而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
. }4 ~ i+ o3 Z' O% o" U& h& {. ^# |% o8 f4 R
的千禧一代。" i: Q# z7 j3 T& m
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB) H0 b) V$ c5 A
4 Z S5 ^+ B$ b& p% ^的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
3 q1 c) |. [8 W) v8 Z) V1 h
3 S8 }* P. b1 @3 w 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加, z5 `0 D2 b8 Q4 x5 k4 F$ v
* `0 w8 @( C* n* J+ v
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
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《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
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! g8 }% \2 U+ E1 K) A的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
, C8 @. Q8 _0 ~6 p. [/ N* e5 u ?3 o% t+ ~3 T5 `
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；# M7 {" P8 L! m! O
- v" }$ }5 {# j
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为+ J2 K& o: J0 R' j8 r
, k5 T) T% N! t* J2 t, E0 B9 W' a& B- ]ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
N! b. D+ ~! S8 J2 r- }+ a% J$ I: P" o' O: L9 f1 _8 D
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降/ e! m, V2 I1 L+ t9 L
) }5 H; b! \4 G4 k. u* Q7 n9 M
息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。1 I- C2 i) b0 T/ H; o' N2 ~# l
! b7 V+ }, v; u! j G与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密3 G1 x/ [; ~( o! Q
' r; U" y& P7 ~0 n世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
: k8 N. b" r4 S6 R2 M4 {% U, `' d0 }; q' U; ?
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
/ X! f/ g3 t5 F& p* f* h7 r4 a2 ]. E
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一% e, }# B' {% @: B1 ^# p
/ P; g0 Z2 t9 ~# r
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
! `5 r# p6 \' p# }$ D8 v: S$ m/ n) i
/ A F9 v4 B4 v4 ~' V( x3 F0 v本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体& H9 a( W1 }1 F
$ @2 U$ U. n9 t$ `系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货& H" O- y# C; i0 N4 W1 O6 i; r8 h
, ]2 T' _) W& P! K9 O k
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
2 Q- o8 U3 r3 w& d" T* h
& F6 m8 i' p% L/ L( r未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富7 Z0 U: d5 F! x8 d8 ~0 C! f
0 A0 N% P# J9 W+ o& D
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。8 N; q7 U L0 J' Y% i
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