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[虚拟币交流]
比特币暴涨只等现货ETF通过？彭博：三大利好正在发酵（转载）
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比特币ETF何时能够获得批准的时程备受市场关注，根据彭博社的统计，美国证券交易 n5 M. s: u( H: W
委员会(SEC)需要在9月1日之前针对Bitwise比特币ETP信托基金做出决定，但是SEC同样可以先选择延迟，而来自( @, [4 G3 {7 }/ h" O
BlackRock、VanEck、WisdomTree和Invesco的申请决定也在一天之后展开。
- z* h2 H/ N( L1 ]$ {5 n- H通常来说，当比特币现货ETF在《联邦公报》上发布后便会进入公开评论期，SEC通常会在45天内作出初步决定，) N2 M6 e4 ~8 }5 s2 {( U
批准或拒绝该申请，届时若未做出裁决则再延45天，第二次仍未有结果则再延90天，最久必须在公开评论期开始% O) j: B0 j2 h- z& G0 k2 ^' r
后240天做出裁决。9 s+ @% j( M( N3 |, t
分析师：预料之内会被推迟
3 I3 M1 O% T6 G8 M7 J1 Q- Z彭博ETF分析师James Seyffart，曾经预测灰度GBTC转现货ETF的判决最早可能在8月15日出炉，如今这个预测也9 U4 c& q: b8 b! W" H5 u$ n8 \
变为「理论上的日期」，目前并没有传出任何更新，他表示「这些决定都会被延迟是预料之内」，而据灰度官方8 Y- S' x0 ?# i4 ~
在7月底的发文，他们则是预测法院可能在今年秋季作出判决。专注于数字资产的机构平台FRNT Financial的执行
! x" S8 m- j+ J8 T( x" I% [" S长Stephane Ouellette则在彭博社采访时表示：ETF申请的基本情况是，管理机构将继续使用多年来的所有权力* H) r* F4 F* a, w1 V: ^. g9 k' R
来推迟决定，即使这些产品最终获得批准，在第一次获得批准的情况下，看到它们获得批准还是会非常令人惊; j2 K2 w& m2 ^$ a
讶。
/ X5 l. P- E( V; b事实上，女股神Cathie Wood早在8月上旬就发表看法，认为SEC通过现货ETF是迟早的事，且为了帮助平衡竞争, n5 D+ J. `& v0 K$ C O7 Q8 o5 l& n7 b
环境，届时可能会一次同时批准多家公司的申请;而最关键的时间点，她预期会是落在灰度赢得与SEC的诉讼，成
- C! D8 m3 j! K: K" v- F功将GBTC向比特币现货ETF转型之后。
7 ^7 s0 D( w" I三大利好消息酝酿0 a) w! p+ X3 O8 c1 o# f, f
市场普遍认为SEC可能对比特币ETF的立场有所软化的潜在积极信号主要有三个：3 L, k1 H8 ^0 q1 L/ A& g* f5 L! M
GBTC负溢价率缩窄* \9 n6 W# B& ?, U }( Y$ ?, H/ ?
最受市场瞩目的GBTC转比特币现货ETF的预测其实可以从GBTC的负溢价率来看，GBTC自从2021年2月以后就持6 T& m4 J' j7 b( z. |2 T6 ?
续呈现「负溢价」，并在去年底比特币大跌的时候一度逼近-50%。不过随着市场回温以及GBTC转型成现货ETF可' k% h; h7 L% T) ^9 R. _2 v M
能性的上升，负溢价正持续减少中。据Ychart数据，截至上周五(18日)GBTC的负溢价已来到约-25%。$ P0 c: M8 \ k. X |) F) l/ o
杠杆型比特币期货ETF已上线
/ o5 D- T( F* _" l- L) A+ O) B值得一提的是，ETF发行商Volatility Shares早在6月27日上线杠杆型比特币ETF，其中「2倍杠杆」意味着用户只3 x2 r% x9 o8 Q' P& u6 X M
要投入比特币价值的一半就可以放大成一枚的比特币，自亮相以来，以吸引超过2000万美元的资金投入。+ F7 ~* \# P- r5 F' W/ k/ X; l
多档以太坊期货ETF提交申请
7 B) n5 m& ]9 E( w/ G不只是比特币的相关金融产品展开新的进度，Volatility Shares也在7月28日向SEC提交以太坊期货ETF申请，随后
* k7 ?& G' n1 @0 N# t2 m2 N- B多家美国基金管理公司也纷纷提出以太坊期货ETF申请，迄今有高达16档以太坊期货ETF正等待SEC的审查，虽然" a- b- Z( P5 j2 f2 F0 z* x
知情人士强调，以太坊期货ETF是否能推出，尚未得到保证，但也被认为是一大利好消息。. O8 E$ e9 \7 C5 W' A; @$ X
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