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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
/ W4 I: n* {0 R* _余勋也不例外、 ! m, Y9 n7 G8 W- }8 x
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 " w+ d* Z8 T; C- i
是保经济的重要决策！ * x. B) i; C% d9 y
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 ' a" N9 o6 t- h" S! w/ c
低点26700-32400、 ! D: L) a2 C2 U2 Q' J
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
* { ~1 R# d g* F6 {# B( D5 c但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 + y. C* B* H: k8 A9 }4 b0 k
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 0 w- Q/ P3 X9 A' p5 l9 f+ D
涨幅就已回撤过半！
" Y5 S7 X( n- q5 ]所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
9 o6 e- a' D. r; U( P不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 9 H f3 e/ p) l; B% \
其次、
& V- \4 a4 V! B% h8 W缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 % X1 I5 A) ?; Z
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
' @2 q, R- W6 Q: y i% G; y% Q2 i等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
( D; ]9 l X! [美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 + o0 Y3 _% i* D- J/ u" T$ S% z
但回到币圈、
" p. X. q1 J+ A6 t3 ^去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
5 n+ Q0 C6 a) c- A7 C9 C' {在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
L' S/ o$ v3 \0 E/ Y而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 H4 p0 X9 i- t( d# R/ e
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
4 `; f. l+ t3 j* s* I' M- T7 r缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 ! d- s$ p0 R5 n# B8 X8 d7 q
对当前的底部、影响有限。
# T! W @+ l/ J2 {最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
* A% K, _, F# k6 f9 O所以27000、即是 k' ^: a) }6 A+ a
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） 7 f" G- `/ T+ g( \$ g6 s, ?
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
8 { S1 M( r6 w也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
0 @1 J2 p' x# i2 Q: K( @- t- _由此得出的结论是、 $ g6 D- ?$ K- I* Z- j
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
7 W' J* L! B0 z点位不会出现太大偏离。
1 j r0 M3 w0 j( M综合以上、
* x+ ~& c; N5 @1 E! ^7 S美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 ; q$ H! {4 t0 |6 P* i
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 2 h4 M' i& @/ |" z& h9 h9 o, g* a
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
+ w6 K* g$ @; M0 q: ` C& L抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
' S' ~. I4 b& l, k# q# x那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 . I# Y8 S' o0 S7 u+ X6 B
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 $ H% l2 o% \1 m- m) `
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 8 E' e, J. \5 r9 w! y( W
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
3 ]& A g! ^% o6 V& `8 Q: p大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
. x. \ _6 p! r' O逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
3 d4 o# t+ B+ P高空需至31700-32000间布局、 1 t8 i4 w% [( g- Y+ p: k% k( u
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 % q8 h3 N! D! T3 P0 F9 ^
得不偿失。 3 N0 x) w! j& |0 m! B5 O: X7 X
来源：金色财经 |
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