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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
; _- p F) K# V, |/ d余勋也不例外、
1 H5 {, S( m6 v其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
8 P' A8 o9 |2 W# n是保经济的重要决策！ 7 q& N5 h4 h" f% N
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 ; }4 e7 l4 C2 L4 j. r
低点26700-32400、 % J6 h" g! x' ^ K- T4 W% J7 F$ z
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
8 q3 _% U6 o$ F1 N5 e/ d但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 " ^- n: o/ S, b% i
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
2 Y$ h5 P& n9 y( X$ E! Q涨幅就已回撤过半！
2 L& N6 m& U6 J2 K" z所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
! o" T% |8 {* D2 R; |不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
6 f, I1 z/ A& i( O& P" y其次、
. Q0 @' M6 X" T" k: D2 r$ E i缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
1 {6 C( U# d$ a9 X$ {每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 8 l6 T$ c9 S% D: ?
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
, N+ C+ |4 N5 {- q$ y美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
, |, v; k2 h0 U但回到币圈、 % L( _0 J4 P" t7 T1 o
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
_" O# V; l( P9 A) @5 B在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
, S; l3 o( W0 s6 T而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 % G3 j/ _8 @3 [' u! g
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
, G9 X( s& P: y/ t缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
: ^# r3 z- T5 Q$ @+ }2 J1 ?: }对当前的底部、影响有限。 ! P( E0 r! r6 k; u" b
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 " K9 U; B5 k9 o9 K& b9 P) K
所以27000、即是 8 J& s1 K6 W) p5 W- @( Z+ h
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
1 }% z0 i4 n9 @- s: @4 }! E, C同时还是去年放水初期低点、 $ \7 A- `0 p( D! j5 c: H
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 / a* Z) [, N! V5 U
由此得出的结论是、 1 \0 U6 C1 e& L# {: ^4 c$ U2 b5 T
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 2 a! V4 q1 Q+ _# A' w
点位不会出现太大偏离。 ) q/ z7 q0 i4 ]/ {
综合以上、
/ }9 U% a C6 m* ~3 ^1 W: _: v美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
4 a! {5 f1 L+ K在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
5 ^: R$ q; S2 I7 V那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
0 Y5 g$ E1 D' J: y$ [, ?抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 2 z. k% l6 |( E% X" q+ a& m
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
, J8 e+ [. G! y4 Q即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
$ r# H# i7 [' }# g6 \4 T- v美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
7 t8 j! q3 I! I8 @夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
, g0 G3 [$ E( U! U* l大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
$ f' l/ f0 r G逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
' X( Y* u: z5 ^5 Y3 Q8 Q& Q高空需至31700-32000间布局、
" s4 }9 H2 j6 T. g; u反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
w) F5 `. r4 X, E6 l得不偿失。
1 H3 [- ~4 G' y来源：金色财经 |
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