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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
5 u( m t4 J. c+ {6 l& H( L. e3 k余勋也不例外、
/ v7 Z. g8 t( |2 Y其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
- V* f- J7 z, Z" e& T/ I5 l3 H是保经济的重要决策！
% w/ @" N/ h' P7 g% A( _这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
U; t. J3 W# T+ ~5 L, }低点26700-32400、
+ K9 }$ b; [( y反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
! w3 V$ z8 B( O5 s但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 - O. \5 i9 \' `# r
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 . h4 t# m4 m \" G
涨幅就已回撤过半！ + Q5 F9 m* ^, ^" U
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
8 g! P& {! ]* n6 k$ z不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 ) k: L& _$ s: F
其次、
0 Z! ^/ x1 o. ]5 m' v3 O8 j缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 0 N! x w* v( }" ^7 A
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
$ O" \. `' `% ~7 X) z) V% _等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 2 b) f2 z$ b ^. ~9 K1 c
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 3 E" m7 m) s3 {3 I9 p
但回到币圈、
0 e/ n- b1 x* o. E @0 \去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 ! w9 @' u! s( R u
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 , j ~1 M6 w! [* y, ~7 C
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 9 @' F/ V2 C6 k- k0 ^' \6 |: Q
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 ; @$ B. l. S6 }, n
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 + E- k" o9 j- r* X/ h" Y
对当前的底部、影响有限。
) E7 g" W, W3 D2 l! z最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 0 t' M% S3 k& c; l* ]
所以27000、即是 " E7 y0 s# D+ u' u1 K, q
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
2 X7 l* o2 n" |# N同时还是去年放水初期低点、
6 L8 Z7 g9 V* v# Y也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 4 S. N9 j1 \9 \; z# u
由此得出的结论是、
/ L& E1 K2 T( F/ s# T5 @加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 ; z( l# V8 h7 w3 b: c
点位不会出现太大偏离。 : u$ S) U$ d! [) A# r- B
综合以上、 2 g: z: [4 @8 B" t
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
9 a5 q5 D2 R3 S7 E7 T: C在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 8 Y/ l3 ]# N3 L. m; c
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 $ K; c/ E5 k# w" t# }
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 & x. V6 w5 M) T- x
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 * I* j L! e" u( G' Q I
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
5 ^3 p# \! J3 E; D1 ^. ]美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
$ t4 O( e. ~: P$ c. X夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
: O- ~) ^0 q9 C/ M* D0 K大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 * A2 V, V' t3 P$ y- z
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
T1 ]3 [) I: h& U高空需至31700-32000间布局、 ; w( ?: S) d' s- v; [
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
x, o% c$ O( k4 e% v9 m& R ]: p得不偿失。
! p; p6 ^# f& ]8 H t$ P' e来源：金色财经 |
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