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大小球盘本质上就是与全场入球总数相关的盘口,计算它的依据就是进球数的概率。2 ]3 [- H/ X9 w2 W; ?5 y' O
我们先引入下列符号:, {5 F) m. D; i$ X. H, }: _
Pn(n=0;1;……;x)表示在一场比赛中可能出现的各个进球数的概率。2 x& r6 l0 J. E1 j
即:P0=全场进0球的概率;P1=全场进1球的概率;……。
% W7 J4 j3 X9 [' M那么 ∑Pn=P0+P1+P2+……+Px=100%。
( S, G8 [* N+ G( }6 G' `Bo表示大球的投注总数,D表示投注大球的回报总数额,O(Over)表示大球的赔率。1 l! z( O4 k8 X& m! k
Bu表示小球的投注总数,X表示投注小球的回报总数额,U(Under) 表示小球的赔率。! P6 \) A4 z/ M) b
! m K1 M$ G9 m在一场比赛中,我们以G表示大小球的盘口(G为任意数);K表示全场入球总数的结果。" V6 _3 l7 W- w: @$ r, ?
在任意盘口G下,全场比赛会出现如下3个结果:6 g8 L8 J; d. G2 f3 n7 U" W1 f
1:K>G 即出现我们通常所说的大球。
3 c* [6 `5 V7 s& w; b2:K=G 即出现我们通常所说的走盘。% C$ y7 w% t6 L8 R$ [
3:K<G 即出现我们通常所说的小球。5 ~+ q& D! o/ h: `
1 O; p3 v* D$ w7 q那么在此盘口下投注大球的回报总数额为:# f; L+ n( u/ b" T: F
D1:(K>G)={Bo* O 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。
! \! p, R0 A" n) aD2:(K=G)={Bo 即走盘退回本金。% q$ J& {4 y% X* w. K$ [
D3:(K<G)={0 即输盘失去本金。, K, [3 m& A$ y3 Z/ Y& I1 [
# j" n4 x. ~+ t, n- C6 o8 a6 _! b
同理在此盘口下投注小球的回报总数额为:
9 m: h- i2 Y3 A5 ?/ j; N& e, U* }6 bX1:(K>G)={0 即输盘失去本金。6 e5 i$ I" d7 n9 j1 Q5 l
X2:(K=G)={Bu 即走盘退回本金。! v& X. y& k6 y5 Y
X3:(K<G)={Bu*U 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。9 s$ T3 m7 M' \1 S5 F5 o/ D1 @
& | o& l5 T. h+ o8 ^' J- s
下面分别描述大小球盘为2.5球;2.5/3球;3球;3/3.5球时的大小球盘赔率计算方法,其余盘口可以由此类推。7 |1 H* l" B+ s8 ~) }
8 d0 v. A/ D! w7 ]& P$ W
1:大小球盘为2.5球(G=2.5)
, {- U; v, S3 O, o( b
. T' f, Y1 {9 {+ y Q4 J在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
% R, e7 j3 t5 M: ^K=0 D0=0 B. q; D" n# k8 x( F
K=1 D1=0
4 ~) w, d9 F& O% d7 Q. N0 bK=2 D2=0
' A( _3 `1 m% B$ c' a$ I2 ]" LK=3;4;....x D3+= {Bo* O
+ {: ^5 D+ O. B! B, ~
& ?3 o7 A7 _2 u+ w投注大球的期望回报总数为:∑D=Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2)=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)7 S5 U! h0 ?2 S* e) `; }
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
3 Q7 p; A9 q* h ∑D=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=Bo& C- B' y. a0 d; s6 J6 H' ~
O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=1
5 ?& Y& m9 r7 p$ t3 [, D 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=1/(1-P0-P1-P2)# |4 ]) {* Y. f3 C
或者表述为 O=1/∑Pn----------(这里n=3;4;……x)
5 M3 z% s1 [! I# I2 u/ V2 Y. W( M! Z# I1 D: C; U7 K6 f
在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
) q& w5 y! f, }: J' ]K=0 X0=Bu*U " }# v! q* S) K* V
K=1 X1=Bu*U 0 d# E- e. t' ^/ Y3 |0 x
K=2 X2=Bu*U 5 n/ k; J P; R. T1 H
K=3;4;....x X3+=0) b% F% S: _. Z+ E
$ u g. s' K! m, W
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U
( O0 U6 [& o+ n$ V& h0 _5 y- A在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。- P$ Z* |4 U4 Z) f% O" e1 [; w1 V
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U=Bu5 {9 }- a3 l2 X% `, ]4 P
U*(P0+P1+P2)=15 K4 ]) L, X/ n* r3 N( R. T, m& V
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=1/(P0+P1+P2)
' C. \1 z# `9 l- Z3 K2 }( F" Q3 Q" L$ l Y5 e, Y& `( Y' `% u
2:大小球盘为3球(G=3)
( a0 q; S1 l }; _& V7 A- n4 F# T
+ x% V [& |5 w& e+ }在大小球盘为3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
2 v+ f* o/ Q' ^/ w( JK=0 D0=0
0 e! C. |* i- k2 A% B5 X RK=1 D1=0
( B& |4 ~8 _4 yK=2 D2=0
6 O' [6 o& w5 c( F3 y$ FK=3; D3= Bo
& I7 K# R8 B7 w6 l# ?1 e% eK=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O
# z$ Q0 D2 F' B% c U8 t* @+ S9 a1 l9 Q) z% y0 ]
投注大球的期望回报总数为:
& ?3 [: D$ }# ?5 i1 I$ J$ e! M! m∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)= P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
( h, `$ w& |5 p2 ]+ O2 O在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
0 q: d$ d0 v1 R, k6 ~# A" H, r ∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
8 C/ h% t* q2 G8 { z- e P3+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=18 Q, ?3 T* X3 J% }+ A* r/ T
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
+ C( i/ j9 {( O6 i- B2 M* d 或者表述为 O=(1-P3)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)
3 e6 v4 R/ c+ \* [9 P G/ ^. C* C. ^3 c! z% ^& Q. A$ }) L$ T! J4 g
在大小球盘为3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
* V! ^0 M- N' C I+ m- I7 yK=0 X0=Bu*U
/ U$ T2 u; C8 VK=1 X1=Bu*U & X$ f4 K, f, a1 O( @
K=2 X2=Bu*U , [8 R6 o/ L% W! J `# r
K=3 X3= Bu
6 c0 N$ c' L+ h6 x5 U S- e$ WJ=4;5;....x X4+=0
/ ?$ t" C) L- W! N7 t4 M9 e& C. H1 ]# a/ v. z3 W* n
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu
# [; a0 G9 d% \' {- |: j% P在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。; x' j/ \" x2 l+ h/ y. x: n6 l
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu =Bu
$ ?8 _. w0 p0 @ U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3=1
8 [+ X, }5 B& v( r* u' p' y 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3)/(P0+P1+P2)1 ]' M: _* @( \7 @7 S0 h3 ~
f4 ^; O3 q9 F# c J* r3:大小球盘为2.5/3球(G=2.5/3)/ A) d/ D! X8 y% ^8 ]/ D. e
* ~5 r8 S0 O' A* A在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
8 J' \( @; w: SK=0 D0=0
4 Q% \5 l; o+ n% U- jK=1 D1=0 0 m6 G, c& \/ R& l. R8 I
K=2 D2=0
8 R3 M! H9 S0 nK=3; D3= Bo/2+ O*Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘赢盘)
% I/ V: E% R5 v3 y% d& aK=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O 0 a+ @5 l2 s. ]
! h M; Y0 ^8 R, U- M5 q
投注大球的期望回报总数为:
" v1 O f& z) ~& [- {7 W9 H ∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O*Bo/2+Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)0 I1 o' r9 p% K6 ?. {
= P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)* g( w: P+ t/ H9 F
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。- h4 Y1 m7 b" v$ _7 z9 Y, t1 s6 o6 j
∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo2 ~* _* e5 a. [/ x
P3/2+ O* P3/2+O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1
4 y( l7 X. v6 I" F6 E- ]: ] O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3+ P3/2)=1- P3/23 i6 x# A+ ~! N9 X" ~: |) O4 J. {
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3/2) # @5 K/ `! k7 \7 q# V
5 x$ \( R; U/ L, s4 E7 p% o1 W& I1 K在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
+ k2 O. a! p' P1 C: f& CK=0 X0=Bu*U
; _5 U- H- g" x$ B yK=1 X1=Bu*U
4 F0 z* ]& W& U2 i2 VK=2 X2=Bu*U
; |2 ?% M& B3 u0 N# O ~: R/ bK=3 X3= Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘输盘)
9 d: p! Q1 a! R: J& G1 ~: P, @J=4;5;....x X4+=0) h; u$ P0 O8 g: v# k' r( u
" t9 V! Y( n7 z4 ~
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/22 Q, p! J X( [, f _5 V5 D, U
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。0 H8 j% E0 K+ _
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2 =Bu
8 z* a5 \' z! F6 l. K U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3/2=14 Z, v1 Q% H" t. s3 S+ m$ l& Q
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2)) }6 o5 N' x$ x" M
' a5 H% s( h+ ]3 g/ x( ]4:大小球盘为3/3.5球(G=3/3.5)
8 _+ W- P6 g* j3 |0 Y$ Y9 G4 m3 q! n3 m( m8 J5 _
在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:- M3 E& p, B# l5 A7 d- M
K=0 D0=0
$ @* G* m5 q' q8 BK=1 D1=0 * c" ?/ P5 u. ]; t4 z
K=2 D2=0
+ C3 P+ X$ ^! d- S5 D' b: Z/ eK=3; D3= Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘输盘)
$ C" k6 T! l0 P4 w6 B* XK=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O 5 _, H% A. v8 T8 f9 _2 S3 ~
7 ~ Y; o8 h: s) E投注大球的期望回报总数为:2 n5 d( \5 P1 W: s. U
∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3): \% n7 X( k8 \
= P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)! a+ _4 U+ P+ o: X+ X* C
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。0 N4 P, H4 ?/ y+ W5 I+ H
∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
& R9 x; d+ {- s& I" P; ?, p1 e P3/2+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1
5 E, Q9 z: K# Y O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1- P3/2
8 S# x, N: F$ ?$ D( l 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
+ ]6 y" D5 w" W6 c5 U/ M 或者表述为 O=(1-P3/2)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x). x3 L2 p: p" k# o7 s& h
7 ~: A+ T s- e2 I
在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
% R# `8 b( |5 x1 i$ F7 _" {: H0 g/ U+ sK=0 X0=Bu*U + R; C/ y6 V! y3 s7 B; D4 c
K=1 X1=Bu*U
B4 m ]7 { _! gK=2 X2=Bu*U
8 V# U# [1 A4 ?1 Q6 I, d' @- `0 ~K=3 X3= Bu/2+U* Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘赢盘)
, r1 F6 b5 n# ^4 B E- sJ=4;5;....x X4+=0 Z; I- \) m2 ?$ a/ s- U& V
' g7 t& T. u1 D* s: r C5 P7 N投注小球的期望回报总数为:2 H9 Q; ]' L/ M7 i
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2
2 \- I, v; U T! T# H, t' n在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
2 K q( `0 T5 X/ s* n ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2 =Bu- F9 T; O7 g- I" Y7 {! D4 m0 s6 |
U*(P0+P1+P2+ P3/2)+P3/2=1. F6 ]9 ]0 D8 ?+ u
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2+P3/2)
# y5 L/ m+ n& _8 H% ]8 c5 N, d) C3 m
3 t) m- B K3 l一场足球比赛就是以主,客进球数最终是多少来体现其结果的.8 w$ ^1 q& ^$ c8 t8 T$ ^
大部分博项的赔率都可以通过进球概率这个基本数据实现互相转换!* _+ U4 z( ]) R! `# q" i; m0 ~
q' V \' V0 |
P0 P1 P2 P3 P41可以由统计函数生成,也可以由开盘赔率计算得出,比如用波胆赔率计算。(这种方法计算出的Pn值有一定的偏差) |
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