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开放赌权以来 澳门博彩业收益首次下降
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在连串不利消息下,澳门博彩业终于录得自开放赌权以来首季收益下降。不过,研究仍认为,澳门开放博彩业的成功经验,成为不少地区开赌的参考模式。
" i# T( I! o9 T 澳门博彩监察协调局公布的数字显示,今年第二季各类博彩项目毛收入约为291亿7000万澳元,较首季减少约9亿,是自2005年第2季以来首次出现下跌。 9 u7 o1 s+ a0 F# f' ] W1 a' P
其中,娱乐城收入在第二季为288亿8000万元,减少9亿3000万元;赌枱数量连续两季下跌,目前全澳门赌枱合共有4277张,较首季度减少34张。 2 L* T) f' J5 F6 m- f
另外,角子机数量也首次下跌,第二季为1万2956台,较首季减少近600台。各类博彩项目上半年毛收入为592亿元。
3 m* `2 J+ S$ Q& a; D7 J s- S 澳门博彩业不景气,牵连房地产业。香港仲量联行董事及住宅部主管黄智威预计,下半年澳门的楼价或有10%的调整。
" c( P( _' I9 `+ m) T& x 澳门理工学院社会经济研究所教授曾忠禄认为,澳门第二季博彩收益较首季回落,相信是由于时值大陆的春节长假期过后,以及今年大陆劳动节假期缩减至三天所致,属正常回落。他预期,澳门博彩业在第三季同比将有两成至四成升幅,全年收益有望突破1000亿元。至于赌枱数量减少,他认为,反而每张赌枱的营运效益可以提升。
1 j0 \; Q! [6 ] X2 q 虽然赌业开始呈不景气,但澳门上半年的公共财政收入继续增加,主要得益于博彩税收上升。上半年博彩税收共206亿澳门元,较去年同期增加48%。
& Y; v8 V& x2 s* X& ^ 今年4月,澳门特首何厚铧宣布,澳门须按照北京指示,冻结澳门赌业的发展,冻结赌牌、赌桌的数目。其后,广东省ZF接连宣布收紧自由行政策,旅客每月只能往澳门一次。
/ o6 {* l( v: c0 s. B 业界表示,澳门博彩业收益的下降将不会只有一季,可能全年都跌,关键是在北京奥运结束后,当局会否在今年底前放宽赴澳门自由行政策。
! u+ o. R0 |# K, Z7 k 澳门大学博彩研究所所长冯家超表示,在澳门特区ZF和北京双管齐下,澳门博彩业受到“内外夹攻”,可能会动摇投资信心,拖慢项目的发展进度。 & F2 x- }+ C+ Z( g6 h$ l3 o
不过,安永会计师事务所的《2008年全球博彩产业报告》指出,澳门开放博彩业的成功经验,成为不少地区开赌的参考模式。该报告指出,澳门模式预料将在其他国家,包括亚洲及南美洲发展下去。新加坡已决定兴建两家娱乐城,台湾、日本和泰国也正考虑开放博彩业。
" s ~" D! I; z- S3 g 报告也指出,今年或以后,全球博彩市场能否成熟增长,视乎信贷紧缩程度有多深及持续多久。结论认为,若要全球博彩市场重演去年的增长,关键在于是否有充足的资金。 5 Q: n8 J6 p# h1 X7 z; g
澳门2006及2007年的博彩收入分别激增23%及47%后,今年增幅将放缓,甚至下降。然而,分析员大多表示“审慎乐观”。
4 O3 D0 V, |/ n. | 至于赌城鼻祖美国拉斯維加斯,更是不容乐观。受高油价及经济放慢拖累,拉斯维加斯今年首四个月的博彩收益,倒退了3.3%;首季高端客商人数急跌7%。
- }1 f4 o& n- S/ W4 M/ m: l 分析预料,拉斯維加斯今年的全年赌业收益,可能出现自1980年代末以来第三次衰退,更是“九一一”事件以来的首次。
7 @# E& e/ k+ |# T 另外,全球博彩市场还面临其他挑战,例如,去年允许开放博彩业的地区,在娱乐城内实行禁烟法令,这些禁令减低了博彩收益。但整体而言,对市场持正面看法的多于负面。
. h2 G& v0 a; c8 \: j 澳门模式曾令区内多个有意开赌的国家或地区赞叹,但有学者认为,各地客源不同,旅游定位不一样,澳门模式未必能在其他地方取得同样成效。 . |: b0 ^# V7 p
这个模式受到北京的政策左右,澳门特区不能为了自己的经济好景而忘掉国家,因此,澳门必须配合北京打击“出境Dubo活动的斗争”。 |
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