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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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其实原文标题不是这样的) R: B& D, b8 E5 v& U
1 W) Q! V% o4 l6 V5 j7 S这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...( K) i4 K) |! ^+ u/ O+ Y5 V! h2 C" i3 `
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
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9 r; _9 ?2 y8 @5 q) d! g 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
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* h3 b# q, c5 Z3 w { 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」. E$ v, X1 }0 J
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「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 ' b. [ n" V4 ~) z
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
) F) p$ g. u, t/ J& \3 z. x+ `' o6 y
! A5 X3 o N! h% Z3 K0 ^ 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
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接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，* |! v; b/ T* Z) |6 D) I! R _5 O$ N
因此铜板较容易出现正面。% l0 o) l5 B/ r8 |
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 2 L2 }' h- x' Y. \4 F% a+ m) h
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
7 A- ?- S3 M1 M- P1 J* [心想赢定了。
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6 m2 Z* Q' b5 ~3 V9 y p没想到开始不到半刻钟，
: Q' {# L9 _/ m; y赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
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0 U/ _# R: F% e/ q5 F& T8 w赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，/ @( B# t9 Y6 C
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
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* s. o; ?2 k5 f T* P+ a赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?% k3 p+ C5 r) J6 N7 z3 D$ T. E
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 / a' A! l$ a- T3 {0 y
上帝回答道：
1 P; A5 Y, C# K1 K/ @. @5 u「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
# G4 l( m0 [! q4 a& `* S4 N; Y$ l" U: W「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
( o5 X$ u/ m G「而不是先发生在我身上。」) U! V6 E4 X. m) C' b9 s
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赌徒恍然大悟，/ p# u7 a8 l: ?3 E C
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
# Z- d6 b0 k( _% Q6 n. V竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！$ ?. ?1 C' x* k" M9 g
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」' m' b2 o+ O2 Z8 j+ }; u
上帝说完便不见踪影。
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一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，) `0 x; j5 W( ?( E. v8 V
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
( V& I4 T. c$ \ \7 Y1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，( {3 Q8 @% S7 Q( ~( }7 R/ a) G
对赌徒十分有利。2 |5 E* ?8 ?# o! K# G# w1 O/ W
* S& g5 l( y/ j5 z. _2 O+ ?3 P% a& r但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，0 Z. N# K$ o2 g' f" G! D2 r1 U
在还没掷到1000次之前，9 e; o, ]; A& j. M1 g
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
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赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
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# Q+ D' p6 c3 L3 W3 G+ b 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
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# s7 i4 B, u( T9 i 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，* K9 |! Q: K( j' [. r
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ ; J4 k( ?& {, A9 T8 @
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