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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 - k. b) t' r2 K: p, |% H+ u
2 w% E( \4 O- D
其实原文标题不是这样的
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0 \8 y2 x- B2 Q( v3 l这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
; ?( X) z3 _" n) q( Y) b# V他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
. J' x1 K# E8 K4 J# f' x$ S- F
7 K- {* q- O, V# e! P 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
/ _. |4 Z* j$ K. B @4 {: m n+ a, K( @1 H; Q t l
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」* \% `* j' f' l, t/ i* y' m g
% r+ q4 a# g9 M# }( z3 C3 \「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
) h0 S0 S' B- }! |( @/ z, d; W「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
2 ^* @. @7 y6 ]% ?) P9 [4 f! I1 K6 D$ ]9 }
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
0 y- q$ Y: n8 C5 z- Z! |
^* g' E5 s6 u% K, y接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，- T0 g0 w4 \ y; I
因此铜板较容易出现正面。
5 `9 g) U, e0 y长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 + J9 f* i9 T/ n. x# ?# z8 }
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
5 C/ X! C1 B# ^( s心想赢定了。; f6 }! N+ W& D/ Z7 E
4 S' U- H" d0 v; m9 L: [
没想到开始不到半刻钟，2 [/ I0 A* r z: }, w) A% p
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
7 R2 Z/ \% b7 @0 G
@& Z; S7 T3 L+ L0 g7 e0 B赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，1 r, G% n# B; M) ?1 ~4 `7 A+ A
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。, N9 T, I0 u5 E
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赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
( { W8 Z$ ^* ~& y5 N他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 5 k6 j6 f0 E$ ]3 J! z {) e
上帝回答道：
. t+ P$ h+ o5 c. \/ }2 \( F「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
; M1 f0 ^8 R& _& y「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
. a7 y2 P) ]9 h「而不是先发生在我身上。」+ X2 o* d! E+ {& p- U4 P
5 `7 o# I5 R) C* n& e
赌徒恍然大悟，+ j0 I. M( K5 Z2 p1 j% p4 F# C
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
& b; b1 `8 q6 b6 L4 X/ _" a竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
7 s2 b- C' `2 I* L「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」2 t' `0 m0 _$ M* n9 s
上帝说完便不见踪影。 0 m. ^) s2 u3 D2 h7 g
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，: [/ K2 F0 z/ o, A
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，; I5 k$ U. \' D5 v( O" ]* ~
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
5 ?3 a: b* @! e) b6 Q对赌徒十分有利。1 _7 N# X y P8 t1 @4 d1 g8 s
( a x$ {% B( }7 |" ?. c0 Q但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
$ W$ b c3 h. j T: ^在还没掷到1000次之前，
8 v- A( ]% ? q+ I, ]0 J仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。' G6 G- ~' k0 Y5 y6 h
' }4 c8 |( {$ a! K) X9 |* A7 x 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
~2 F9 G; ~) x* y, o+ f
, V- ~$ I9 v3 \: X$ ^ 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。# z' M' j: s. z6 i" [% D
& g2 w6 X+ P. a" T 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
, `7 a( `5 E1 q- S3 n/ H0 r* }. f! G/ ?6 S/ S/ w! D+ G
永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ , A; T ^3 e) S! E# v* D9 g$ m
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