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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
) H+ d0 U- u8 G* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c' C. b/ G+ c. r8 r5 f: c
凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
6 g |; R: Y* h- U- F
0 g# ?$ r1 \" I5 K3 W1 G" J/ UG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
& G% |. f( H* o/ v& g什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
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& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h& X9 j) x, [' M/ B! j' R2 q
既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!
2 @4 G j7 ] g. U7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
+ B% ^) y0 P O. B* L做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `% }3 i A$ a/ l0 S, I
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d8 _# U% v! R* |9 G2 S# W! y
(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
* m( S$ N2 v9 i4 c! n7 t k1 q; Q6 Q; I6 I
(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00
9 o. _5 l2 h. Y2 X. S0 v7 C8 b; }7 @
(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t0 t* a/ f K' g- \0 m/ [- F) X5 {4 N
; W; w$ |" L( c' A
(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95
9 v/ j4 V! O8 T- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
: O+ N7 l3 H- p/ J0 v3 v我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 7 U" J, V2 S7 M3 g1 H, G
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
9 I4 H6 y7 k* e1 P; R @S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 ) e3 e1 r. [- ^/ i, ?7 s
8 q* k! q/ g! }S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
7 _- j) L- e* {" ?: h* F% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
' E, J, z' d; l' ^& L; zS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 ) I4 T6 ^- l; z2 f
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
/ Q4 h5 W; k/ Q \! H) T" d6 h- jS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
4 a# ]2 b* r2 Z* X. C8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
( c& @+ G7 A: X1 k1 q+ A% i1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
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# n' I8 w5 l- I3 o2 z6 R: D5 Q1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l$ x( X2 U6 G, V3 U# G% s) a
& u y5 z1 D% s: v5 E$ r
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
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1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
; W, i3 }6 R+ r: O2 a4 O- L* g: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r2 {/ J: F$ z/ ]5 w' x1 N w
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T1 @1 b! W# t8 e2 d+ u+ }( _
4 ?0 ]- l A, v/ \6 w" w9 ~ a
类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j% N& W$ f$ P" K0 [8 Q L4 O
$ ~8 v* y3 ]' ]/ |# B4 |
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; / ]0 e3 p6 t: S
: o: H1 O/ ?( w6 z0 R& k5 v9 HS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
' b$ w" I8 t4 o1 q" \( [" g4 Q& Y; m' V% T, u, P% O7 [( i( @9 @* y& p% K2 H4 a
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
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, t4 N1 H6 w# Q4 }/ ^, cS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
, |9 q* s$ ?0 k. a" [: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~5 y- b" @- {) X- {
(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o* p0 Z* Y; `/ Z; `
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
* }5 i }- |7 H: b3 a* v. U6 X' k好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 , J% K6 d; ~( n0 Q: D
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B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
* w9 R8 h! R9 W, T) \1 U9 @. w
& |- D# p g! f Z% kF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 s6 I& M$ \4 K% j
" F% R4 ~0 @( [, M
于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?/ G* K, W% [0 h+ F) P k
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {0 }: J$ B4 k, ?8 d) r- L
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M6 _4 k4 K j. L& t6 z3 w% S
+ D$ n) P# X# M$ G" r& G- K" U% b: n4 L; o
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
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G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
% N( O5 L+ D" b6 r$ N& o# x9 U9 _9 w
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
3 Q7 v+ r1 p2 \- {7 U6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i# v2 y. A! n$ `; I6 {5 X3 ~2 ]$ M. C
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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