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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
7 u6 |/ k: k4 U' j% M3 C* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
" y+ E0 R4 `1 O$ u; \, Z$ H5 [ W9 t凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
# Y. O; W& r& G, e; K$ Z
, ~- Q2 k. P d4 M7 {! KG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)9 b& D7 X. W7 B/ ^5 e/ o/ W; `" }
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
, g* H8 w3 F5 h9 y* \" k- O3 ~4 f* t' W6 k: P. z# q( L* ]
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
# p0 I9 k: E a ^( H @既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
4 I3 ]: Z! [' E* R* }4 ^8 H* a' ~7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s+ k: X' L, a( q, |( [7 A
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
% f0 u0 L1 u3 S4 I o( }5 j- M# k" h; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
4 m J- P ~9 B, c0 I3 \" [5 p( w(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
4 O u& r& z( i) n2 D4 n3 T! \ a) f4 l
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 7 K; K; |- f( \) U- z6 i
& Q6 c. f8 w S! N4 k9 o. R/ L
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
6 B0 p) E' M4 O" E. E9 Q
# B5 a" Y' s) }$ [0 U3 D+ c(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
% T8 X1 h( ^% I$ N% v& ~: d- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _! L2 W7 e2 i5 N5 j5 B/ @
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 6 ^& l; h) ]+ Z+ n
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
; z; z; O8 d! p4 eS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 9 C/ o% i/ I& m0 f+ Z* B2 d
* z: m r1 N: P2 D5 F5 M& }
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
* y' P% X, I* ^; Q% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
. O( ~4 D8 V& G) i8 d; U: B! lS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 7 ], m5 W: [* }5 X- j
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j- \3 Q0 @" N/ S) p0 r, y
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
2 `4 C' g0 n; ~- P1 L8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
5 Y6 _5 g) |/ Q1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 * C# J' o* c( T: c1 F
/ u' k4 \/ x8 A) \1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l. b3 s+ s5 d- L1 h- X0 n4 k
( e! L5 G) [5 M: ~6 n) e
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q% H8 P# i$ k6 O3 G E4 K) s
3 o. r9 [$ v1 J+ A
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
; f& F$ T) k% U2 E1 L; T. u: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
- Z# ^) }1 W3 s( uS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
) h& v' C' R2 ~, B l; }
' K z1 D$ j( O6 ]( b: Y: o* Y; `类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
( s) o G; [+ s+ _. F, C6 D7 c8 C, ~; i0 H$ t
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
( i' M4 W2 F0 p* Z' ], r
1 y, e _3 h( [* M& h5 ]S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
# t! \" U/ o# H4 ^; m' V% T, u, P% O
. F# s |; `) x1 d* J' ^3 JS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
( ?( ]3 }! h# x1 Q* v& [! U0 [3 B6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
- ~1 o& T; _) ?7 G: K7 y5 @S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
; W' ^0 H5 k4 ]8 o$ D: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~4 V3 d& ~8 n7 v o% V
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o" r4 H5 n% I8 ?3 U4 G& q; u
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
/ S- W! ~3 V. w* c2 Q+ N/ L3 |好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 * ~7 f1 b4 @; ^! O9 M
) q( ], k9 L T& t
* y3 r. E7 O9 R* w6 Z8 KB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
& P7 K+ b! [: C- w0 `; X: M0 `: b( B; o, v3 Y$ D
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 ' M- N& J2 j4 s
7 }! H) S; G( |. p% r
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
5 n9 B! D7 N0 v9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {' H( Z" b1 V0 m( p4 ?: d9 H/ m
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M' S% C& `5 ~: y0 T4 A I
+ D$ n) P# X# M# f1 N+ B A; G8 G) o
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
! l% Q- S: k+ ~) U Y
$ ]) w9 k4 \) W6 NG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]1 f0 T4 ~8 s* e! p g) H/ }, @7 A
9 S2 n) N- m# {
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \5 M8 b/ P; v: L$ a4 U! D& R. B. ^9 D( _
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
! \, S; b5 x V8 z5 K# B2 V通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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