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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
$ W, u& [& |( r) S6 x* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c- {4 q; K8 P, K b9 U
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k$ r& e6 a4 E/ o9 }
& M3 W% ]& q6 M- g _G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率): o" g5 S1 x( C; H3 z
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
; h/ V3 s% C7 }& [( R7 }
6 P) C% C) y y1 F. K/ q3 O& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
* ^; i4 Q3 i1 e1 h既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ : Z" z& J) V2 Y0 G5 B, m+ }# c7 f
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
; \3 w! P9 O: k# q做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `8 r' S0 ?# z, ?5 O6 j
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
6 G7 o/ I: N4 G- G' G(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n2 Y k5 R& k; ?4 T1 q
- G5 l& w# N9 Z" g# z& P(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
& Q( X: [2 Y/ E7 F5 x& k$ T' @
6 x& T4 ~9 y2 _* P6 p. b* z(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
& f# a$ M" t, {! E3 a/ v9 F, z4 S+ j: x9 L1 U9 o8 N, |! `/ e
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 # T" _! e- g' B7 H5 g) D0 ^2 J
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _' W& A8 v6 A/ l+ W" ?" F5 X
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 / B% ~ p! o8 ?6 L& c1 @
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c, `7 N3 t: N' }& C& R
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
6 P" [2 ~+ @2 M' k2 N4 `& u, ~6 h# C1 D' U- i7 V( }* M
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 $ g2 T7 W' l" f" n3 T: q d
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
" p; _1 s- ]( V7 Y& B) cS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 - w" N' V3 l0 u" B4 G6 ?
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
5 D( J9 ]3 O& U& w- o dS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
; ?) m2 e/ A2 H" ]8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v! \( ?6 T# p0 ]8 c6 k9 @4 K
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 1 p( V) K8 `# Z' n
Q1 C+ S2 W1 m% p) z8 \3 C1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l- K- H$ D& D1 }1 a# T) b* f: W
6 D5 X6 c* X# F( _& g+ ^; e1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q& c( g9 T9 h; ^9 Q# q) t: P
9 X7 n( c7 Y2 X5 u" g1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
7 O2 K; J5 s; ]: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
! n) t% C( X9 K1 {8 N! ]S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
: ^. }* e% u, r, O- j. h
" i9 h X3 f7 T# R3 T- F. M类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j& n4 A/ T. ], @8 x5 y
- L. k3 N! s! ^8 R' w
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 8 a$ j% T1 w& [* c' @7 e
! Z7 O8 w' J2 F2 q, ~* v
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
8 P( D: f$ e9 r& c- N9 \- ]; m' V% T, u, P% O
/ V) a; q7 R; R8 ^0 d+ |S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
% l3 D( m* w( u [' l6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a1 Z+ q" u2 \2 a7 @
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 ' H8 ]( Y F; Q& ?; z- S8 U
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
; ]: r$ B [. d( r! t(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
a4 a/ p3 @. E5 L9 X* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
# M6 _5 r2 J/ q# `好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
9 v8 N. M3 I2 _ ~) q( ], k9 L T& t/ @6 \; {$ N- F# b+ y: ~6 K( b
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 0 P+ b# J/ j5 O; L) n" }4 U! w( I
* K* x/ y* Q1 e. {0 b
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 ! F; e, R3 { [6 \ z. }5 Q9 d* Z$ l
% p& R: G2 D Z1 E于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
5 h( P7 x+ j4 S- X0 u9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
7 c, ]# R$ O7 MG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
7 h5 v0 b1 i0 [' f- L/ T* H1 o+ D$ n) P# X# M& P( g5 H$ s/ `' D! c2 S
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 % \6 T# o) \7 m, ~; u" W
5 A/ s5 g% f$ l/ ^6 D1 S5 D0 R0 nG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
( c1 t6 M/ v/ H% [, `
( ^9 i G& k0 ~+ T7 U2 q" _, G当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
5 \' Z; ^, \" Y% `5 b6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
" L+ N# w a+ w0 ]0 T9 {通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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