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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
7 U$ X( h `% }. P* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c; U7 _/ U2 H7 d6 d% ? W
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k0 G& l3 r" o% A; p! |+ `1 @
, Y: j" Q3 z4 y0 l7 wG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
# A0 M( G" u/ k7 }什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
) d% U3 J8 K J8 I. j# y9 B8 l
' d. X! k% w: A9 P) e& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h2 n" A7 o/ N) ^1 A. O% K
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ : g4 m! ?' S3 F4 J$ M# j
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
& u b2 M' P' K( v4 F* O' Y做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `- V1 c: {1 `6 H% X
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
7 l. _! X$ \) _9 f, z(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n) ^3 r8 D* `% `% K- [- O
# u( l% w: V3 K' B% S
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
% C- d0 I+ ]+ K9 r- m4 l! g, ]2 u9 ]5 e" T3 ~& C
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t8 `' I, ^0 c! A+ Y
0 B$ p) a' ^( a3 q
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 ; ~: s7 A# P* N: y+ C# E
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _8 g2 z2 E% n' ^ B$ w
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
% z& J$ m/ I4 u5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c4 a# T$ H& E: }6 m% @% N3 ]6 Q
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 ' E: S( O3 V: C2 |# F
! f5 E: p# G! _+ L, r! SS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
- K9 a: |3 U9 [/ B' b& N- A+ l& F1 X% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s) x/ T$ B4 K! D5 ~( L
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 ! { [) J& e4 y! r
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
) g" c5 @/ O0 b0 n, M3 y& v/ Y( ?+ oS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
! P/ A! E" n% T N9 I+ A2 H8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v) J" k) b: n" _3 a- e/ K
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 7 m" t5 S% w' F" i. d2 b- t
& k+ L$ v) U# H7 x- k/ y: V6 e# D1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
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1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
" U; ` _' ]% K/ g: G: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r( W+ h: ^3 U" Q" @4 \" T
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T6 ^, z. }* w: U$ Z$ [! f/ Z
6 Y5 ]% F& V8 _) u7 }% i% r1 C类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
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0 W5 k3 @" B0 ^ g0 Z- k4 ?- TS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
! Q5 [: n# P! t9 e; G% A
9 ]! i" q+ e, M% aS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
" q+ E6 }" k, i( c( b" I; m' V% T, u, P% O( A( A7 p/ M: a1 W* x3 A7 t
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
' Y4 Z0 ]! _1 \" ]/ U1 P8 }6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
- I B: h! M2 @! m( j$ HS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
3 a6 [2 O% X1 R5 q( P' J: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~( J4 t9 Z) h* {2 ^
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
6 B0 M6 k0 ^, H% P, {6 [* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \# A- G. L( j- W. V; q8 i+ D* }
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
1 Q7 u [/ ?: [4 U) q( ], k9 L T& t
! k( f5 O* \( fB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 7 i! ?9 O& J. P% N) v! d/ N
* s! M% k; D4 ~3 l" sF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 8 g: j" U" y; p8 @; o9 X
9 \; Q7 }9 B* {8 X, G
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?3 m) w @% X+ e* i8 ^
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. { t& S* y; d t3 u/ p- u- R
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M$ Z& g% V! ?6 S3 P8 K
+ D$ n) P# X# M
2 M, s8 E9 r0 z1 N1 \* fG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 6 t; g: B9 L3 e4 `5 C# Z2 H- y
( N0 B6 u& Q+ Z1 { j/ aG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]6 b1 C, u! J$ `. E: I( m; Z6 T8 X
: Z8 w6 a3 x d% T- B当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \, K6 C3 s4 o9 Y# J4 b& R
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
# O( j+ j2 e2 X& s通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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