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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
7 t2 e' r! y0 \( d+ u% Y% ]3 v/ i* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
# \1 m, Q/ f/ C; z凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k( E% I2 ?2 k- L! o% `- M& B* G& f8 b
( z* u! d: T- n' i3 m
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
* [, C8 f( K6 Q" q什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
; Z5 G' R2 F$ s' f8 q+ w" H( s
2 W& e, Q, }4 |) b& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
/ V9 z, W% D" M6 K既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 1 y- S2 a% h, Y) d% ^
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s# a& \6 K% }. G- b7 Y
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
8 n& F. y1 ]5 v: c8 {$ |, V9 }; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d# D& J' s }6 e2 S/ o( v
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n; P' K7 F3 J" Z; _$ Z X/ d$ K
$ N9 [7 a% x5 y1 H3 ~, U
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
# \& d% P9 {; ` b' Q
* U# J" u" }9 L(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
$ m* `3 ]% F: x4 ]( g- ?" {% T9 \. \! F% P
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 0 d6 z L2 R0 K( o! y: z. G3 R
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
1 k+ x7 Y* i0 P: T) A我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
3 K1 |1 d# o& _2 A# e$ f* S5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c |% I, @0 o2 P3 V4 P6 O
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 ( _" r: |1 B! X' E3 C3 M2 y$ r$ i: Z
n7 P ^" @- Y- K; d- G
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 1 F% ^0 ?2 r/ o1 E2 L
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s, j4 V! H4 j4 i$ Y W5 ^6 r
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 " o! d; Q1 B. _7 A
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
$ s; X4 D% C+ u) y$ O/ p+ Y8 zS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
6 Q% x" u- Q! }- B) V, i8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
' s" H( I D2 Z1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 7 P9 O7 a& M7 f% i7 ]$ c- _: j
! G; Y ?3 V0 A x$ W1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
; k8 X( Y3 ^. W& ]' O1 x8 E0 k$ j# [2 F. A5 y
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q2 t9 ]+ ?/ ?7 F* }# a! t
5 n) x8 R. p, h/ ?7 u, d1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
* D6 C% e3 o& j- c# ^' `: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r8 i: ]: S; h8 W H6 k% j' D
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T1 X. f1 W4 C/ D6 f( }. ~( J
, D# ~5 x! z8 N) y类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j- F+ e6 c6 z9 P9 l
5 e4 m2 f% Y3 ^
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
o3 @5 {1 D* G# E8 Y# v
( O) o7 S* C+ i+ b+ WS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
$ @: G M Q" z0 y5 C; T5 g; m' V% T, u, P% O1 o% }* \5 a- o2 f- q. R: Z
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
( x6 e8 z9 F4 E1 b6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
( f+ h c, V' \6 o3 {, `- XS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 - L% V! s$ m2 E2 Y, p3 p9 z$ l! \
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~+ n$ D7 ?2 ]% h: u* D- T
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o% H! h7 `$ V# ]
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \0 Y8 o2 C# o8 w3 B7 {! h; ?
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 ; K! W2 ^% r( ]
) q( ], k9 L T& t
2 D& N' L# y# H jB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 ; j# E J: F) s& X8 U; j7 K* F- P
/ {! \& X" a( ^8 j! S' e6 r6 VF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 + d+ O$ i. W1 w' G: e. j
" G1 n e, i4 }4 h4 L4 x- K
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
& X6 y# T: A5 w# {! S, E7 \4 i9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. { O4 D5 c: r3 i6 H& h$ C
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
2 @# @$ T0 Z5 E1 L" M+ D$ n) P# X# M
2 u/ h9 y* m" e6 v3 a1 hG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
0 D& ?2 ~( O0 B8 R3 L1 t7 _- E8 u9 v5 F% f; p2 ~/ ]
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]5 p2 e) L) f& s
, B. ]0 ?( R7 W1 L9 C当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
) u6 ]4 @# _0 }6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
' M4 y; j4 q8 G8 _( m通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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