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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲   m& T, [  d8 Z5 Z4 {, n. d
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只跟踪一个联赛
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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4 Z, u" m0 r- ~三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，! j' D8 {6 `$ Y5 C" s$ F' I

. K8 e) b/ d# Z2 \偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。' L( Z: F, [  F9 B7 z6 s) C
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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8 h. n* j* `+ m, @就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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- U7 Q" h1 u# v! F亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，% b( a: L% o$ j8 G4 O2 p- \* x

& A6 v9 P$ k& @  g2 i/ f但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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7 s* y6 }& A3 E/ _% ?! ?理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。! D" Y$ \  T$ V  ~3 f! ^# q4 n5 }

' D6 y. t4 ]9 {+ i& H排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，3 X! O4 v$ P7 L& [9 X
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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& K9 ~. z' L% p/ N4 u" s这比买国债存银行合算。
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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9 [5 T& k/ a) R; e9 U常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。6 Q5 H: V  W7 Z/ U+ @6 B2 W' O

$ z1 D( i0 a9 c放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，" G* R5 j/ H7 @' m

8 I, V/ a9 H5 x! X8 z) q就是回避了大的亏损，& `, W; h9 |2 G4 I+ L$ T

* J# u' I/ `* d+ k7 q大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，# n5 _. ?# E( N3 L! X2 g
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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