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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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# |4 }8 F$ t' k$ G$ k" G8 J西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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, t' n, H3 i) ?3 Z, ?以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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+ V0 ]1 t+ l1 ?- o3 t7 D$ `' c* G+ D& }
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?; v5 t6 w4 ~" i: C5 n4 l
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盈利可能性1 c' y1 r0 T6 E$ d2 G9 P8 I
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。4 s% D# V0 {: L: y; d9 c
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。5 b0 E) H7 f4 j$ L) I6 e: V* |7 x

, X( i0 \0 r2 I: c, t5 y7 j你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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4 C) T: [4 E' K( }# d: F- Y6 Za) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 5 N# h. U/ t: K5 T
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么/ p6 l" f6 T; W  }

: e6 V) I% A( P3 i: B& q& D" F9 I40%的机会你会收到150元的利润1 u# u) h) ~: k: l
60%的机会你会一无所有! x$ p' M; a( @% C# f
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
8 @( e0 u' E* `0 ^: ?由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。; X! A9 E# C- m
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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/ Z3 \( @/ b7 h$ t6 l* I6 `基于增值的投注( O4 W! C$ E6 ]6 H  G+ }

8 d: k- a3 ~: Z4 D+ ], @% M) h8 `# Z凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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0 H4 g  |! b/ v) B3 M1 ]. r' \公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)0 ^5 m5 I! {, t2 M) P$ P
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A=博彩资金) u9 @$ F: |; r8 Q3 D& v
P=获胜机会
8 A' F; R2 W! g( KO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)( w  v, s4 f* l8 J5 [# U( J

" i1 Q$ {" N  p9 ?5 L首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。; m8 Z& s6 v5 [" n( F, D, z

% m7 g4 R2 P" m# t/ e* i好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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. V) \* A# @/ c$ r$ o9 ?( gA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)& s5 g: X, X; F6 U+ i& p5 [  v

  ~& a, T5 b- |4 N" {% l# v+ ~+ bA=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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4 }( A* \! M6 Z; k) W; C2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)5 i% P% q6 c; W' A8 Y

( F- G5 _4 h# p1 g$ A6 C& Z) ]A=0.16 M$ X7 H2 _3 F% v, s
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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( }& N0 C9 J9 E/ B; o( \7 y% m3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)9 }& I3 k; C" L$ K' r, L- G- Q! ]9 k

, W/ u+ c7 E: u* r- yA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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* b) |* h5 _$ O, Y% t/ BA= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好; D8 i/ S' T4 Q1 }9 R: g
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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