Array
(
[fid] => 6728
[description] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!
[password] =>
[icon] => 7c/common_6728_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[digest] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 0
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 1
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 3
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 加精华
[action] => digest
[fids] => 6966,6903,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] =>
[rules] => 1)发布主题帖+1经验+1活跃币,回贴+10华小分
2)Lv.1及其以上级别会员可以发布主题帖,Lv.1及其以上会员可以回帖
4)转帖请在主题上标明
5)禁止发布与本版块无关的主题(违反,帖子转移到相关版块,并扣50经验)
6)禁止回复与主题无关的帖子(违反,帖子删除,并扣10经验)
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[137] => 体育菠菜玩法规则
[138] => 体育菠菜心得方法
[139] => 体育菠菜问题咨询
)
[icons] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 81 83 84 87 89 90 91 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8 92
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] => 足球,篮球,体育,规则,打法
[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[sort] => 0
[orderby] => 2
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 5
[imagewidth] => 200
[imageheight] => 150
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 900
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6831
[type] => forum
[name] => 体育知识讲座
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 5
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 2735
[posts] => 23140
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 0
[rank] => 113
[oldrank] => 114
[lastpost] => 1383848 赌大小球的些方法! 1767897978 try412
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 1
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 0
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 0
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 271 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
! R" Y9 c2 [8 J4 X7 u3 L3 H' `( a! s- V; j. j1 ^8 U
# |4 }8 F$ t' k$ G$ k" G8 J西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
6 M2 {9 M$ i* J
, t' n, H3 i) ?3 Z, ?以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
) _% b) f* a/ b2 i3 g% _, L) J" g8 R; F! l
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
2 g* Q1 d' Y+ g* W5 e5 Q! G8 l x3 }8 c
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
4 c% L0 y9 h8 ?& M+ N+ I) G. e, B2 D3 \; `2 a. G2 y
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
/ `( m9 }' O* c. u c0 m1 C6 l
+ V0 ]1 t+ l1 ?- o3 t7 D$ `' c* G+ D& }
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?; v5 t6 w4 ~" i: C5 n4 l
4 U5 Z' }6 z" s$ g/ D$ k. h" L
# C- ?0 z! n8 I: M3 F0 U' x3 C7 `盈利可能性1 c' y1 r0 T6 E$ d2 G9 P8 I
3 W% r" o: V+ K6 m0 Y& s' K! W8 t
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。4 s% D# V0 {: L: y; d9 c
# H4 t, P% g5 c$ N/ ?; H. g
增值
6 s8 e) P Q* S. D8 m" f9 B1 ?- l: x
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。5 b0 E) H7 f4 j$ L) I6 e: V* |7 x
, X( i0 \0 r2 I: c, t5 y7 j你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
" ?" [6 V& T0 F- q, m( @/ Y
4 C) T: [4 E' K( }# d: F- Y6 Za) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 5 N# h. U/ t: K5 T
: C; v1 i: S. e5 B% g
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么/ p6 l" f6 T; W }
: e6 V) I% A( P3 i: B& q& D" F9 I40%的机会你会收到150元的利润1 u# u) h) ~: k: l
60%的机会你会一无所有! x$ p' M; a( @% C# f
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
8 @( e0 u' E* `0 ^: ?由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。; X! A9 E# C- m
! N$ U" h n* [' _& N
增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
1 s: B1 s8 u" e u {2 m0 j' F
/ Z3 \( @/ b7 h$ t6 l* I6 `基于增值的投注( O4 W! C$ E6 ]6 H G+ }
8 d: k- a3 ~: Z4 D+ ], @% M) h8 `# Z凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
/ p$ A: n+ B4 _5 n# s
0 H4 g |! b/ v) B3 M1 ]. r' \公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)0 ^5 m5 I! {, t2 M) P$ P
" z* K: z# f. h/ q& O
A=博彩资金) u9 @$ F: |; r8 Q3 D& v
P=获胜机会
8 A' F; R2 W! g( KO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)( w v, s4 f* l8 J5 [# U( J
" i1 Q$ {" N p9 ?5 L首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。; m8 Z& s6 v5 [" n( F, D, z
% m7 g4 R2 P" m# t/ e* i好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
0 G- {: x6 d. R: d3 y, _0 h- v: a- {- ~+ |5 `+ W8 O* C0 z0 @7 P
1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
& j9 R1 g( o7 e. Q9 @/ F0 h6 Z, s4 O
. V) \* A# @/ c$ r$ o9 ?( gA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)& s5 g: X, X; F6 U+ i& p5 [ v
~& a, T5 b- |4 N" {% l# v+ ~+ bA=0
+ }* Q' F: R3 }% D6 F; ]% p7 Q& f
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
. U8 H8 W$ t2 X- G5 @
4 }( A* \! M6 Z; k) W; C2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
$ L7 d: }/ F# P" ~: r4 |' J4 S! \# J4 I& `1 ?
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)5 i% P% q6 c; W' A8 Y
( F- G5 _4 h# p1 g$ A6 C& Z) ]A=0.16 M$ X7 H2 _3 F% v, s
* p( E' z8 i) ]1 `! B( c
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
3 l2 G$ Z8 Y! Q4 ]3 e2 P
( }& N0 C9 J9 E/ B; o( \7 y% m3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)9 }& I3 k; C" L$ K' r, L- G- Q! ]9 k
, W/ u+ c7 E: u* r- yA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
7 I* N. q, F4 C2 h! a4 I
* b) |* h5 _$ O, Y% t/ BA= -0.2
% g! L1 M4 j' p0 d7 T+ W k9 {5 E1 k1 c; B' A4 w3 U6 m( [8 N
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好; D8 i/ S' T4 Q1 }9 R: g
) M2 C2 @( _+ }& n" p' B) f
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 968 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 800 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 7136 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 4235 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|