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[lastpost] => 2760461 美国国债代币化的狂欢与隐忧（转） 1756298807 韩少
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中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，
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! ^2 k& o a, O+ h( U形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于
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% }. a9 {0 K% \9 @: N逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政2 b) Q- R$ m( S, @) r' A6 S
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策的确定性。
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% P( H1 \4 F K& w8 s) {% ] 中信证券主要观点如下：' e0 A8 q N9 B7 Q* _5 k) J
6 l l v/ L6 T 加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。0 |$ m _( E# J+ g# B# u: g
, P' ^- P1 F) Y$ \ 自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。
2 b1 L8 x4 q& o; `" D: v9 p3 Y" J' ^
' ?1 s. x/ Q* x 近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。
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+ X$ O `; d6 [& L+ ~ 2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现- ~5 _$ ?+ C4 ~" G9 _! W
8 p" J! L2 \* N$ l7 A- l不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。1 A5 I1 E( p+ H2 L( |% H ]
3 f8 r# X9 p/ A) f7 A% h& E 加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。0 Y, v6 F8 b8 `
* V& V9 q- e8 j3 B% z% \3 h 从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。$ I6 G# o1 x$ M1 N9 @
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加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。( E& t- Z& ?3 j
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由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫
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破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。
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5 @6 J% ]; C* u+ O K 短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。- ]% R5 f$ L4 D: T, K, s- E# @
3 H$ M5 P* G+ s9 l' `# |. ? 我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性
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9 E. L8 R X# h+ m2 H共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。; F. t' ]. L. w3 B# M; ]; E
! c* c* P/ h6 N' w 长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。
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& C% f' N6 t$ x9 k% p 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣
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势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。
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展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。
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本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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8 {7 N& r- i5 T( I策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。0 S+ t6 O b$ [9 p4 b- C6 E) G( G; W
: u% g1 m) ~' |7 C 风险因素：* T2 X8 y1 C4 }5 ^
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特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。6 u. T. u1 c: }6 Y) o. r
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