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[lastpost] => 2798092 分析师重点推荐以下四种具有强劲上涨潜力的加密货币：ZKP、RNDR、AKT 和 FIL（转） 1769218076 rainwang
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。: k# Z6 Y% `7 C% |
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心; J1 j; C& B9 e: k6 L+ x* P }
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
% W% B; }# d: m9 h9 e美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益* q6 e% B, G8 H2 P
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。% m8 k. p2 y$ B8 l1 J) B" K3 N
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国, j; I* ^/ b5 ~9 l: [4 T" t% c
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更" c6 ?/ a4 E! z, Z5 a& ?
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是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。1 j/ `) T$ n" g, X( r- f6 u
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币: b7 a5 v, i3 B& o# f; X. g W1 ~' U
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史3 s6 m {7 P' {2 B1 e0 _
0 a) y# N0 e3 [2 o标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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% ?$ L; `" g% u0 _# S; f周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。 L, t) `; v1 t6 U, \# u
9 u/ t# H0 P ]周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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1 g* m/ I/ j, I1 t& ~收益率冲高回落。
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( H( v8 \% m9 T1 S, K1 i周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。# {+ q7 e8 x. K6 k, R) |8 V# ?
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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7 O4 [% y% i0 i" ^; @2 ^Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，: ]8 ~9 d" w4 {$ Z9 Y% `% X, F
: ?9 W" v5 |4 s2 i9 S! v% F是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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3 l, k) k0 F" y' G3 _$ A& Q7 V根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去: | s. g" d% j0 w* Y! a
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"6 C1 ~5 R* H2 ?, [2 c4 x1 r
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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