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[lastpost] => 2769523 灰度警告市场异常变化，山寨币表现优于比特币 (转） 1758981925 人生如赌
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。" Y/ M, R! j4 z) y! h
; f+ K- b, E" O; I2 c: j& G- e; B- ?* F瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心+ w- {8 p* s2 @' v
9 o, r6 {2 g7 i g衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”+ o5 [/ `" {9 n+ K3 W: e$ p
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金( M; `3 K6 J/ P+ F3 r& m
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。+ T# R$ x1 O. @- H
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益5 u# { i+ P- x0 S% j7 \
$ T; W0 V2 {/ k0 x# J9 y) u8 ?率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。$ o3 M4 G; i& @" @6 B
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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% B. l+ ]& M6 o6 M& a3 `长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更$ Z" e( [# W& `
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是表示：1 w8 t8 Z3 k7 y4 k" O" g+ Z
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。# F5 d7 x( J/ P/ F$ s* M! f
3 {4 q3 v, k* G8 E$ Z历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币2 k& T- Y) R/ h6 [% c) c& ~
+ H' ]) F6 H( O9 ^, s特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史" r7 N7 [" k& ^2 s* y. g0 g
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：2 _4 A& X3 U, s$ I b; f5 j
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。/ s4 l8 K6 t3 A3 e1 T/ K l3 x. v
. n( o$ r! K5 r0 z1 l. F1 @周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。( [* [1 T3 A) d* A- x: f& X/ w
% o; |& C" s" n" \8 K$ q9 g% ~: w( o周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债: p$ C! w* v% e" M
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收益率冲高回落。1 A9 [2 z- v5 E1 O+ A
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。0 N/ s) ^5 E; ]
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。4 ]" y$ X8 Z0 S3 D
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6 v5 [. |: Y7 a: yLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，% {# A& ?9 v8 B$ ?6 P: Z; B4 y
. r) _0 Q7 Q# [4 Y! |3 a' {是的，这正是我们所看到的。"1 V1 f. |3 `( i" n1 v; `
4 j2 J, y1 |5 E8 q% O& `根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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