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[lastpost] => 2769523 灰度警告市场异常变化,山寨币表现优于比特币 (转) 1758981925 人生如赌
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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; D3 m8 E# J6 V: g6 R3 F过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
' e" [- m$ d6 `7 d
' s$ ?8 }4 Y) ]$ K" r! w% nPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。- S; m* f( }2 |6 \- [; m/ K' z. X
# F% s4 \+ B. f% U9 b+ E
CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
4 B5 e8 |0 i& W3 m$ J; U, V6 V T$ n; I8 K* ]
2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期+ ?+ p: ]* H" K- g1 N
[3 c/ G" b* d; |7 z) i* c2 v当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;6 H: e4 c$ @! z5 M5 R* m5 \" N
- O. d4 Z) P _微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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" e4 o" {6 g: PETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。* _2 Y S2 C+ F( r+ l1 q+ U
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比特币价值回归:
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+ W" y. `# ?* @) N市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。0 b+ z# Z. `7 m5 e) w& O( c& E# {
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随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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& j# u- m7 {6 U; i* d; s加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。# o0 R6 s$ h: d$ [1 K3 p: D1 f J
0 ]' ^& G+ @6 Y5 G! Y3. 市场热点与反弹情况- M, y1 S/ R7 ~+ `
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ETH:# R @2 M' d/ V8 T( \* x* x
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。6 v# p2 c, k* D8 V
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。4 u. b& z9 |! Q2 K. G, t
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BTC:# v9 ]( g# J% B7 ?9 Q* x
0 {) ]" x7 I6 ? b; v尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
9 \% [0 y8 \& C! P! P5 c: U1 K4 s/ g
( h% J4 X" m, ^! D如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。( p9 H4 a6 w% }0 } y* q9 o2 ?
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SOL与XRP:/ j4 p8 V1 @1 A. K) t5 j
) b/ F0 g! ~/ Q3 H7 @* p. x, i4 JSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。2 ~) F: c( N9 s& n/ `
% a+ R0 z z, z2 MXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。$ D, z% |: s8 U; f% U
5 C3 i7 p6 g2 g其他热点项目:
f8 i) q0 [) R' H+ y g' Y
1 Z0 b7 ~( X& i涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。* w8 c, o8 M d0 l
% Q. F6 M; B1 E3 g山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。' d E% h- L. f
+ r4 e e! k. E) x4. AI赛道与新兴项目4 c& q* |- e5 W* F
! Z1 i% G9 |; F. R$ yAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
% C3 l0 g7 W! n* \ M
, v, j. h5 S# t7 D' s& S蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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* q# M: M0 ?( h. L; e, S+ n新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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8 g6 ]( M( S; v6 e8 R6 R! `" N市场展望
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。! R* x* O5 O8 M4 Q L, G1 h3 t. f
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