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[lastpost] => 2798097 卡尔达诺(Cardano)价格逼近0.40美元,面临巨大抛售压力(转) 1769355062 叫我十三
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势6 p+ q3 e2 _6 }: J7 Q
9 _. Z9 o. h) R过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。# S' O5 x" s- @% {0 I: F6 b
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
. j2 @2 S s. p& _5 L- k
- A, H/ j$ T$ ^: G0 l0 iCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。+ k3 }/ C: |/ o! f2 K3 I5 B6 O& U' n
. {* e. z2 G0 M" m, z4 _2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
% O8 _3 l1 Z8 p1 W( g* S
! j& K' t) S4 G8 f+ t当前持仓成本:
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+ X; D1 V: Z1 F机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;6 F2 k& J n6 x' @1 N1 E8 E" ~
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
+ [' ]5 z- [2 ^ ^! `' t! a# {- v( ?+ q' j' D3 y: `% C5 M% q
ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
( u1 j4 A @9 D2 N$ |8 y( \! m! L' {$ B1 M9 b# A; K. h" H$ o
比特币价值回归:$ a2 Z% D0 e, M$ ]
$ A H- v# v; L. {7 }
市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。1 J& n3 }9 _5 v, x
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随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。' B6 H) \* A0 Q+ c
+ l7 w* |4 H8 a. i) d1 J加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
6 }2 t: N! }5 S0 ^6 a+ n6 w$ ]
, X9 o7 z' V$ H4 t8 y4 [- W& y3. 市场热点与反弹情况, ^5 E( w' T% ]6 {& o
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ETH:
* p% {! @* q! X- p3 C$ Z7 i; A- n) V" {
虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。2 m4 I2 x" t/ y0 c5 `, e; A% Z* n1 p4 A
5 H( ^2 G" T+ n0 s
机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
+ A5 i0 s# F" r/ A: g, n x) c
6 c! p5 v% I0 t2 L& x+ oBTC:) x, J6 w! q3 C% W+ h' J7 m% r
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
. I" X+ h% T, O3 N1 V+ ]+ I/ n! G9 _# q0 d
如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
* r" G$ ~$ _, B/ ~
+ R0 F4 K; @1 _% }SOL与XRP:5 w* C. g- I1 _# |+ Q7 w% W
- |, C8 k* a v7 i& OSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
6 L" T* l; ^' H! h
, Q- V) [, N z! m6 t! @( Q9 xXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
( E* D9 y7 P2 V
5 s5 t3 J. P1 u N1 f; ^# K其他热点项目:
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
/ c6 U. v: q4 v ^4 y1 l, g5 Y6 [* p! [$ G. O
山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目
6 Z9 c8 e* \. |# O: W" ?7 C% B
& z" H2 s& Z3 u- m+ u. e$ ?3 XAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。. r9 z, N5 I! R D' U, O% ~
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
+ O% w1 o) c" @2 J7 G7 b" d: @! k; R) N7 z2 `3 N
新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。+ T$ K) }2 b% _
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市场展望
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& ?- Q- P( H6 H) V0 Y' J随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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