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[lastpost] => 2816464 明天将迎来四巫日，市场严阵以待，应对比特币可能出现的波动。（转） 1773980343 小作文
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1 f. {7 G4 n# q0 P
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
2 k+ m+ ?) p# JDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
: e! ]! }8 @9 I4 a: A9 X衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。+ T& y; R: b8 @. A$ K
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0+ L" U1 [6 P4 w& E \0 x _7 i% z3 A
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
) C% W x7 Q+ ^& r0 T4 lPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
! Y. o. w- b4 L, n2024年4月第四次减半
" v' {. s( g% d2 g+ H机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF( } b3 {' D) a
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)' g0 \1 D! l. b9 ]- d
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
5 S- H, v% R" N. T0 e* w* q& s9 Y二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
9 }( W8 K$ t" t. ^) c5 P% qfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
3 L) h0 ?* ~& h. s+ I- OPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠2 k) v" z, G; c. B( l" A4 v1 w/ i1 M
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。 \$ a+ k3 m/ \5 Y/ F% m
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
$ B; v4 ]3 T. w8 j: u' ? @- W0 {3 e除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
2 T. Y( o# r& W金融(TradFi)产品。+ A$ Y) ]5 \1 k
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
8 _, N* \! |2 S! O链桥」的项目。( z1 ?0 }8 j% \( ?7 }# s
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉& Q2 V& o. F: n- ?
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
. n3 [1 \9 a3 Y* A9 b$ T8 J等。/ A1 V7 X" _/ s- q0 V
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
7 F/ P% g, o9 v& a在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
) [( Y5 Y A- g. ?* F& i五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
! O$ F! p' i& w8 r) zPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
- J: u& d! Z2 H0 k2 p) H数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
e2 c0 \: v, f- kPantera点名了几个项目：. z9 Z, s- Y3 y! p3 {/ z5 }
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图1 Q( N% V' a' P* u) `: F
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台* w- g, Z2 } ?* |' b, b
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
6 e9 W; v1 y- [The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
c/ I: m/ Q8 F. A) m2 m. X9 YRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游
2 y# ] |5 E3 y/ ]. K8 Y' i六、小型公链需专注特定应用9 k( _: c) o% X
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚/ [; g+ P5 H" c
至能直接与L2竞争。
4 q! W% D- w4 Z也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。( X! j! P' R n5 k% T
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地0 M7 L' q7 X2 n. X
成为「应用链」。
( W5 ~0 A& S' J$ [' k( W事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。& m6 }4 }. |2 i5 N7 q
( X, v2 u% H6 Z+ ^# b7 c* a
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