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闲只在0-5加牌，庄只在0-6加牌而且6只在闲加到6/7时加牌（庄0-2只要闲加牌一律加牌）：3 G" \4 b2 x p/ r5 K
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1、4+5=9，4+6=10=0，多4显然对闲有利。
" A" ^1 W1 d: Z. b% n- w9 K$ \6 }0 h. h( p% K, K
2、各牌多寡（根据算牌得知）对庄胜闲赢或和之影响可以用电脑模拟计算。例如用8副牌若少一支4，开庄/闲/和输率会自原始状况（1.05791%/1.23508%/14.35963%）变化。若少4庄赢机率增加即证实我们根据加牌规则的逻辑分析。
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, A+ J) r, U/ N5 c' E1 X电脑计算结果少某支牌庄闲胜负输率若如下：, U) v4 I, D' b( I- j- z
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少一张 开闲机率自（1.23508%）2 f) t- M; p' n2 g. W1 g) B) |
. U# ^( [0 l8 e W升（降）%2 D8 P4 i6 | Q! D
5 t. N P! a" P8 Y: d I6 xA （0.0018）; ^2 |" F6 @- v
& H# e/ e, b" ~- h6 Z2 （0.0045）
" X, q$ a6 g2 D' V1 d, A4 z V- b- G& s8 b) W2 ~% q) W
3 （0.0054）* J; g5 _& ^# Z8 X8 f0 \0 a
- c2 t A1 b6 q. U9 A) ^+ n4 （0.0120）. T M3 ?9 P$ R5 O' d) z* j
& b1 f, U. G$ m. A. w. \+ n
5 0.0084
. ]$ ^% k" P) Z* S- n! s y* [. R4 V, C1 d: p T0 ?6 z
6 0.0113
, t4 d# B z# @+ c& z$ B+ \" c3 t) q! c1 _
7 0.0082/ j U& B; F7 w; F. L7 A
, W# V2 Y" m+ L$ R8 0.0053. c- ]8 \1 T! h7 W+ s7 ?1 b: J
$ b, {2 s: u0 v5 G) l( P8 v9 _
9 0.0025
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例如打8副牌，少一张4，下闲的输率自-1.23508%增加0.012%至-1.24708%……即少4对闲不利。. S$ t5 g3 `- J9 U& g/ ]; ~1 \ Y
: q( n0 A: [; d9 L' W. O; o1 G w由于每一组牌都可以用电脑计算出庄闲和机率，玩家只要等到剩牌分配对其有利时即可下注获利。玩家当然不太可能把电脑放在赌桌旁（在线博彩也有可能）每把算牌。21点专家把算牌简化成+1-1在脑中计算。百家乐算牌也可以简化……简化前我们先问一个基本问题：* g$ a# {7 d0 m# W3 u9 O
: D/ `3 u4 O) m2 H21点当退佣高时不算牌即可获利，若赌规好（可以早降）而切牌少（6副切1副不打）算出好牌的机会常高达百分之三十、四十。百家乐算牌获利多少？值不值得？4 m5 Q' [5 I' l- d& h3 V, R- L/ X
4 g) R# [. m7 J& [$ _" }, h假设用8副牌每一张牌的影响如下表：: `& _0 _+ L0 _8 e. Y( B
: @; A8 K: E5 k/ V! ^! }原始牌庄/收益率为-1.05791%，-1.23508%，-14.35963%& X* ?: Z) O! Y( J( U8 u
: l- O0 d2 N) f! R2 u当足够的牌打出足以克服庄闲和输率时，玩家有机会获利。问题是好牌机会甚少：8 P$ a V- Y" o7 z
+ _3 \2 t' Y% a$ E& a
所谓穿透率指一盒牌切多少比例不打，例如用8副穿透率九成指切0.8副不打……在8副牌打7.2副的情形下好牌的机会只有万分之1.77（庄闲和合计）……一万把（3000小时？）只有两把……而21点1万把有2000把！5 C# b6 i! d. X; C
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一般8副牌很少只留11张不打（98%穿透率）。但即使只留11张不打，好牌机会仍只有1.2%。
# n% V0 |6 }. z' O% B1 N3 y2 f: ^2 U. D7 H+ U; V9 L) X0 l- C( }
如果用最精确的方法算牌也只“一年”找得到两次下注机会，百家乐算牌的用处显然太小。% W- u, s$ L; M2 q
8 ^2 }/ N) Z4 g5 l7 G' e不过如果你（因为喜欢？）非玩百家乐不可或可以拿到很高的退佣，算牌仍是玩百家乐的最佳策略。% W3 F" H% ~- m" K
* ^1 f: Q5 T, n; l0 `* U- m9 N当然你不可能用上述的最佳洗牌法。博智在“打败庄家”一书中提供简化的百家乐算牌法。由于不同点牌对庄闲和影响不同（如“4”对闲的影响是“3”的两倍），不同点数标数不同：
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: B8 z/ y3 W1 c0 V O7 k: S7 e点数 标数
5 Z. V! V, g9 V
. o# |) r( e9 tA +1
1 {2 d; P% y3 |; y9 ~
2 b+ n+ ]& R6 ~2 +1
4 Q9 N/ I( m/ d& [1 f Q
% M9 Q" U2 P# V. Y. Q3 +28 F& _! W6 U' E
0 E Q( E( q( ~7 y O$ I1 o
4 +3
6 ]9 t/ v. n4 l: N# {0 X
, r* E; C$ q# @& M* v( ?# r9 j5 -2
7 i, f8 L3 C! k5 X! s, R) x G6 C: e1 ?" j! B# o D, S& n& M# s
6 -2
* d. C, o% z8 H$ v( F7 h& p1 k
5 y# l' Q, j, J" x- l7 -2" n0 m$ B1 j& A4 y
d* l! R/ b- ?1 C; C7 G8 l* b
8 -15 C5 K0 d8 N0 \1 h) n, F
. [" j$ |5 {. b9 0& n/ K( c; M( H0 S5 r) w
' f& w) \* m& d b7 e0 0
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+ R, M X9 s, ^: w( b, l% t自0起算，看到A/2加1，“3”加2，“4”加3，5/6/7减2，“8”减1，9/0当没看到，算到正值表示小牌出得多，庄胜算提高。
1 e1 e+ C; Y8 _ C, e/ E7 a' T) u0 S
9 h) m4 q0 _7 Y2 z- b. A: E算出的数称为流水数。流水数除以剩下的副数称为真数。不同真数时庄闲和的收益率如下表（%）：
; F1 H) C! V7 i q! t M$ x) g9 i9 s' X! g3 W( i* T& }/ n' q0 t1 h
注意真数“0”时为标准牌下的收益率，下庄-1.058%，下闲-1.235%下和-14.36%。-16时下闲输率-0.586%，+16下庄输率-0.51%。如果你拿到1.2%洗码退佣（依下注额为0.6%），±16时可以下注获利。若你拿不到退佣，得等-27时下闲（+0.022%）或+29时下庄（+0.02%）……大约玩半年会碰到一次。* Q) \ R: P* b7 W
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3、结论
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- ]9 L1 [2 j; {百家乐的钞票不比21点美丽。鱼与熊掌不可得兼。想赢选好赢的，想玩选好玩的。扛了想赢的大旗玩好玩不好赢的赌戏，南辕北辙，不输也难。
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