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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
, }9 t& Q0 i4 T5 c! I9 P$ S* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
2 a* K1 O' q/ K+ w7 F- @5 G! L凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k, I) B! m8 R# P% v
4 h% q# U w* x. @
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)* S& w5 g5 S5 k/ \; e: E
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [4 `7 H. x5 ]" f
9 { z3 C# M# z# x& r' }
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h* c9 U( @ m* z) v, n1 c
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 3 c4 P" j% m6 k4 f
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
5 H: I5 O9 m: J7 b3 r2 G3 m做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
" l& ]2 V0 X+ l7 z" p; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d- w6 E# r, [0 {$ A
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n" e0 L x6 J1 @$ T, o+ G
2 E+ P) C$ u; I5 i8 b; `' @4 X- C
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 # P$ E4 B8 C8 n0 ~% h- ^8 ?3 e
( _+ i; ~, t! W6 C) g4 K% E(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t1 ?$ m$ @5 m# W3 Z* {- `& D! X
, G+ n9 S8 E# p(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
$ [& E; q( q# S/ Y- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _ y/ j' t! o1 D$ f
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 : ]: _0 D8 g! U
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
& a; N! y! W \ P) f& y; SS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
6 g+ a' @ B$ {/ v; M6 f/ G5 @; p7 t7 o. ] `9 l7 n- f
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 # |9 [9 L! ~; J3 ?8 N
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
! s! v e3 ^( i5 l& |S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 ! Z7 `" k$ n5 p/ w2 l% w$ m+ v
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j: S; Z5 W0 m' q. Z
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \5 h& y4 u6 f$ b6 b+ K2 R
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v$ j, R: R3 s) t! q9 Q x
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 * g* T2 O# Y/ v* K# w
* ], \: C3 |4 R2 G/ z0 b1 d1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l# U# l. d$ [% |2 o, _/ z9 Z
5 e! N# e9 N+ l2 s% g0 ~0 s
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q* E* g9 L+ J: A. i( D
* s# N1 x/ B* }4 E, N- H
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
+ Q# B$ a6 Y) a& \: v: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
& m; ^$ b- c1 }5 |/ F Z* eS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T. k0 s+ h' F% d+ l$ l/ n/ K. ^
: ^6 r/ h' P2 J/ V类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j8 `: c' v7 U1 s: K' k+ r
& j: a( m0 V) ?# Z) U* R. X! H
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; ! [% S/ i' B9 n& ?- o4 ~* K ?
2 p5 @, t, o0 E4 y- W1 d1 t- ?5 j
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
3 S! q0 l6 l- P6 n: q; m' V% T, u, P% O0 C# X1 L1 V$ T. Y7 [$ u: h% l& F
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 8 a; r ?2 |/ @2 ]
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a7 O# ~ V+ l9 O, Y
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
+ ~+ S7 u" d9 l K! ~. Z: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~3 x: ]/ _& E: M/ C/ u
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
0 B, W4 h _+ P5 b* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \2 C0 a* t4 O/ ?: S7 k8 V) u
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 1 `0 E( _' L$ c1 q4 J
) q( ], k9 L T& t9 R V. p$ l7 \6 W8 P7 `( G& A
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
7 g" Y# |& ~: ^4 h5 n1 x, ~9 b2 p M5 r5 D& R
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
/ P1 b+ @1 j/ q" b8 @$ h4 O
1 K; z. M# c9 |( m1 |+ K于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
9 S9 ~3 u+ }% A+ z; a9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
9 n; c1 m6 j6 ZG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
& m4 i' N; {8 Y; l) m0 ^( w+ D$ n) P# X# M& A9 n r2 Z, H
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
2 e9 O r6 @% Y4 j, Q s
9 o5 V5 r# Z5 Z0 ]* \G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]; h [1 E5 M- I. N# Z
) w0 E" X+ Y, X u1 c( Q8 W
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
O, F! [7 o. R6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i; `5 U) O! |! O. @9 j: U, j+ `
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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