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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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$ E+ G" I- ~& T) j& R9 `, Q: D% q以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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) o2 x; J3 B/ z" k皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?- u4 D- h. j7 Z7 b, M1 M/ d, j
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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# j  `: A/ C! n0 F4 q以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性+ ^  P) o9 V  j( g) y# c" I

+ ]2 L* r/ ~) a+ {+ t对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。! x) N  f; |+ b# l  f  \% C' t' }
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增值( {/ ~0 E& k9 o) I3 W: p' @

/ i, b0 @  v2 P$ g% N" T" H8 p- C许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?1 _4 @9 x, ]1 _, ?$ P
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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/ ~: _( Z5 \" b& k0 ^' v/ N正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么7 y6 S) c0 J0 e

$ q' C; y& P- Q40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
3 S5 h% B. P1 G& K- d$ a7 r" m' w60%的机会你会一无所有# v, g6 m! I- |( P/ Y
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
7 w! l" |8 ~7 X由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。  R: `' ?7 r) U& g

: F) l3 h& S$ R! T. o增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。! T$ [4 U0 b, B2 u. [
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基于增值的投注/ J$ c) W$ ^+ L6 A- {5 M
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。6 R6 }. t) t  Z6 v& }: U. _( R

% \# o* h4 A3 E  M公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)$ P: T2 X, ~, D" T- b

/ @* d: d# [" W% L: n7 HA=博彩资金; g- q& W4 ^7 D
P=获胜机会. r3 w3 Y7 r( v8 P
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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1 g  Z) g0 c2 _( E$ T首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。' X* D' o3 I' `9 z& j
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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0 k0 ]& G. ?/ UA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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' y4 @5 U. a  X. h  |, N, d5 A; oA=0- t2 G6 N. C1 f# L0 G

0 T( [; E1 R5 I  ?2 x结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢- ^2 e4 ^- ~! z% Y# w6 R

' T0 ~8 ?. U0 V) \/ n$ r) _2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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- o1 ^6 z% T2 R  B/ t- PA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1
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4 Y+ F$ v7 L- A2 R, C7 S结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去: g, j) J: r8 {2 F' a1 Z

' N4 ^$ H8 W1 A% s  d" B3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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* i! t/ V2 c! u, R2 o' \5 T4 ^A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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  W. h: v0 M: c, a* k* [第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
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