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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。( h1 z3 X6 e# R7 D
5 L$ \( C2 o. j
! A4 }( B S, {: Y西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
0 U7 m$ ?. t' ]' T7 Q$ h) H& |& M1 R" B9 v# v" s. P5 g
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
- p7 [1 [. p* h; } Y6 ?/ _. L% z& p+ Q( F' k: R
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% ! \$ g0 h& \3 ]' j( \
; g5 x( }# _& _( [% y. t
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?( C' y0 b+ I3 W3 o3 j7 R3 Z
9 T) X9 Y. H' f, D" a& _) ]2 `
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
4 X' v( R+ M u
8 f% ?% s- i+ D7 J3 I& p- y) F2 q& v( \8 [7 l! i7 Q
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?1 z, y. B3 _7 K* \7 o
! y5 h% q5 v$ m3 y* T
% S! _. j8 j2 e- V& m盈利可能性
* X7 [9 Z1 }8 W, C4 T% u# w+ f) `( ^
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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* Y# k* `, x/ M0 a) ?+ y9 _许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
! M; S0 N1 u8 @4 @
1 t- p- A: o) y+ R- K1 V& k( D5 }4 I你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?7 a% n, v6 y$ P; ~% o3 h- x
3 s! y6 a8 |5 {" f( q$ R. @a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 ' a* J D( ?4 E, a! j+ x
$ H* |; {& E/ ~8 e+ T; b1 s& L
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么0 ]3 Z& a! m" A
, V7 f- d! w: s- O40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
P/ o, `: W( K( S60%的机会你会一无所有: }6 C+ F. [9 Z
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
/ [& R% C2 ]0 M) W2 y! _" Z0 L由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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: G3 D% x/ t+ W( `$ p8 x/ U+ i增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。7 A+ d) s# t; I" N0 ~( m7 n
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基于增值的投注( J% ~+ d. S- I/ h- ~; q
! J- _0 P8 f" R3 U
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
% o4 o7 [ U* t3 o+ _" X% x1 @. V1 y3 v
公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)9 R" U9 t3 E: x+ ^2 r, t: K
( p5 l1 `/ }4 ~" I7 b. U0 X0 S* jA=博彩资金7 w- z7 S8 r$ R/ ^* a" R. o
P=获胜机会
. b; P2 p6 T3 x* ?, nO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)6 F! e4 R. ]% B, {( Q' I
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
4 H& C: M* h6 O4 w# ~4 ]8 S; ?% ~- `, D' C0 j$ u# i
好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
7 A* V+ c' b1 J8 ]% A" a6 I6 u9 t4 B5 |" G- X
1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
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0 d9 _7 |+ M, r# l结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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9 ^( s/ Z2 x, ]2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
& o2 a( n2 z+ E: \
% E! v5 b: q9 [( V1 ?5 pA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)( o+ e, s( \7 ^# R3 F) p
. f8 d6 Q+ h, J. X4 D1 H" FA=0.1
6 }8 G' p# g$ N- E1 N1 {% |2 u/ R
3 j0 G. m/ n# }1 J' f: E' k$ E结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去# d/ o% ?' r2 W7 U# Z
1 e# g t m4 z8 L! _0 ~7 R3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
8 v4 [/ A# V$ a. N1 a- ]+ e7 J" i: ^' X f
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)) j) y1 A5 G% ?" p5 V1 h( T, X. z
; t0 v5 Z4 f# B/ \9 R( uA= -0.2 , O' a. ]5 z9 o" r7 i# R" k0 e
3 v w; s0 y N' b' q结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好3 @: Y9 L0 u+ F2 i
7 t- B. S- a @ U+ g; t第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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