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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。2 t: B2 f- b+ E% l, O, ?$ r' c3 R
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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, @9 L% \/ Y1 f3 H8 {衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
2 Z! d8 _7 p8 s4 P/ ^3 l美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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* }0 Q9 I& @. K3 H" E$ I# [融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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: `7 f L$ g5 A. A( S( \3 `! I! _" L过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益$ {6 c/ f1 X9 z
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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2 o. u p5 c3 P* m R2 K& z是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。, h8 H9 G& F% M! Y# H. l
* V) x* p6 P! r- Z3 g, [历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币 [# J6 c2 o/ q! f& K# ?
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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- C+ j5 p9 S* a标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：& T) c1 x/ Y& t2 c
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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6 H) `3 A5 s1 b R4 z周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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6 [# I! V$ T+ o/ M: x+ d; D周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债' Y4 y; [6 ?& L4 c
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收益率冲高回落。* [8 ^% b- q1 y$ k& q
k G% @' F( O7 @ Y; l3 Y周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。( q) g& ]& W1 z+ `* r- R% c
% x* ^0 W" Z/ _% C% {6 f2 r周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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: l0 Z" F: N, e8 O4 T1 x8 X是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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0 `. ~8 ]+ u; L% _# y, `$ T根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去/ W2 v* l1 Q) T
: J1 D1 t! g' s1 O4 i年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。5 w3 y P/ |( \+ ]8 Y7 A$ c
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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