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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 6 T4 C. ` a: j& K h" s
余勋也不例外、 4 A, U9 k; b! u X
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 ' f& M; [+ f- B8 j# j: r+ F$ g% i# u2 u
是保经济的重要决策！
3 m. Q3 m% K" l% ~* f$ u k, H这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 $ N+ T4 ~6 ^ F' r0 |
低点26700-32400、
# t2 B2 Q& k5 q$ K9 W反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 ! n! c7 y9 y" j6 h1 A/ b5 H
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 & W" |9 h- r5 Y* ^
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 6 R2 C! j, e% m" i% B2 _! c& Y
涨幅就已回撤过半！
$ z2 e+ s$ H5 u. ^所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
9 V7 |: x& Q# ^% ^- i; D1 e不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
& a$ W0 Z9 `6 k, z$ G3 T1 o2 ?9 o其次、
* A! J$ {6 D' Q5 E缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
! E/ ^1 e9 h0 Z, F# V0 Z每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 ( C" D( ^ O5 K7 w+ ~
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
, B- n. W1 ~5 V$ T( F1 M' P: s0 [美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 + R! |/ e% ~8 u- a$ `' U7 ~
但回到币圈、 6 ?/ f8 P* T: n7 g9 H$ g
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
# t9 Y( x. {; p% j6 g在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 - G8 U$ ^& z5 n, p/ v h" g5 Z
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 $ y7 J9 x5 m$ R
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 6 F! C' v$ w8 G: {0 X' h* w
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
! z2 z; d6 L+ l2 d4 v对当前的底部、影响有限。 8 r: W( S$ \ n
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
" w7 }7 e& Z: F u; J8 i# j所以27000、即是 * v* F% ], w+ [/ k
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
& Z9 h9 O, \& S4 Y) C J# P同时还是去年放水初期低点、 ) D. q! m# n, r# p
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 + X i4 N, d; ] I' n- D& C
由此得出的结论是、 2 E2 A. J& |& L4 g+ H; X
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
7 V! m' y/ u3 A' [% V( ~1 h' e点位不会出现太大偏离。
- [4 Q/ P* h4 N# M& p; B综合以上、 * k; `& M! |0 K# y6 `2 D' X7 [
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
5 f. V- {, r k1 ~在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 ; N( ^; h5 d4 b$ r2 A! @
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
1 T! u6 }3 r- m8 ?2 q, C抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
; c8 z0 S1 e0 ~# ~( _" r$ F那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 4 ?* E: A# Z6 b# I! F
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
/ y4 B Z' x- k美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 4 R5 U8 t5 S5 _5 ~. [
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
: p" z/ O: ^! C0 S; Y大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
1 A) y6 ]& l; F& h6 A. Q) x逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 ~8 A$ i/ {+ Q( Q$ C* I6 m; h
高空需至31700-32000间布局、 5 \; ~# K( _9 t) ]: f
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
4 [5 y" {2 ]3 z1 z" q- C) p Q得不偿失。 , F0 N6 G% D* V, k4 k% H- h
来源：金色财经 |
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