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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑3 _: D5 q) `& s, L( u, @
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8 m9 w- M L0 t+ d8 H, W凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k9 \* Q/ H% Q" S3 h. _: |
4 @0 T, x- q! [+ ?7 w8 `: M, SG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率), w6 i X( G& H3 m3 g5 F C/ W6 e
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
2 t2 S8 M" M4 t( u5 O, [' _
5 D+ o& m5 ~; E* [6 J& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h0 J2 _3 b( F5 D O
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
4 a: A+ K# u0 n2 U" i1 v) H e7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s/ W. R9 N; k6 }% {. D/ z
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `$ o& i' |: R# l% W" x6 N1 i
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d& Z2 r9 ^6 n- @! j$ z) ~/ l
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
. W; d) ~( j7 } X' c4 }
' G- @5 G" @5 |$ l& `' [(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
/ V& Q3 e8 C, g& e( E% X/ W+ P3 D) f: t% b6 X2 ?" y R
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t7 x1 a1 n! B" {' s$ Q* z
0 {' m- V/ x' E8 c. U+ `(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 $ v6 {) L& _' \3 [
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
# V7 b7 I3 U' I" M7 } g2 a- Z我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
* _6 ~: A C: V: _5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
5 k& v" \9 d8 h6 US1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 9 z& T- Z1 x% J( m$ X% i3 {! B/ C9 b
! q8 F* D8 W( z$ J( BS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 0 K3 j: g' J# t: i( i
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
$ S5 b0 V9 v9 u1 v: x j& kS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 ; [8 [! |& D! Z" p& k
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j* ]% U" ^* n7 Q+ E2 \! l
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
9 B7 d' F% ], K; x/ ^8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
4 T" V( B* I2 F5 \* Q$ Z1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 4 N/ ]$ @# G }. m. B. j7 M
& U$ d4 ]+ i, N0 f4 o- B& |& x1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
1 V4 O% L2 u$ l8 b1 [* a7 H5 _+ b3 T4 f
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
6 Y9 o* m! D$ `8 i' z
5 M4 S4 `2 F' N" o' F, _1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 0 K( w3 y- {. F! k& g1 D+ Q
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r" W' n- R8 U7 F4 r; `0 I
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
' R) t$ z: h7 t: p
" i! ~ l) I' v) V类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j- J' G. h# O# L
/ t8 _* o w/ D; _/ n7 j
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; / T& t! O5 `4 b) E! U$ n4 c
4 T; U4 U" u+ Z, ?/ S0 Q/ j
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
. o3 `+ S7 u6 L' b: L; m' V% T, u, P% O8 L i& n! o7 Z; _7 V- u$ N/ B( y
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 6 @" I; [7 J6 |; [
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
, X9 L, J, k5 Q, L5 M9 g; sS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 / `( a$ @* F9 Y; D. K; ^
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~5 v8 q$ ?) a3 H1 i, \
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o4 f7 i* W0 Z- ]# ~. @
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \4 t& M. }5 [' j7 ~( F3 [
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 % {" d. d9 d* E% Q
) q( ], k9 L T& t& s y4 B) c9 C" Q' t2 c
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 % m, V4 R# ~7 N, I1 z
$ f+ M2 ^ [' ~( I
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
8 D7 v6 {. B& _4 g* O* I! ?* m+ u! C+ k u! t0 m- A" d
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
! h# w! {" S6 Z% }1 S; i8 P9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
; P: t2 X* {* _% q& e/ eG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M' Z# F- Q8 |" K* J' ~8 p5 K1 R& y/ p
+ D$ n) P# X# M
! Y6 {' i) a+ {8 AG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 * c, w* a! t: X9 ^
* c ^/ G# x! r o; X
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
' ]% @. O% K8 [9 t2 `6 e
$ y0 N$ f- F) f% @' p0 a, T( V当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \ C1 x7 f7 W7 a9 O1 ]$ P+ T. R {
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i9 H5 s' r$ [4 p( ~5 O6 O
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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