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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。. h" H7 c( V3 e
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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+ m! i  Y3 @3 P8 U5 G! q- e以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:! }  X; R, H) f: }
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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* i4 x8 S/ y; F$ B+ P* m! o7 z很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)  @; n8 Q4 L6 s  d% O
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?% Z8 |  E1 |7 t" V$ T+ y
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盈利可能性) Q6 W; y) ^3 I" d* r: {. s# d: ~

) h4 |, M2 u! q) ]- ?/ {对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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/ e/ N  w. ~! v" S5 a你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 ! M5 c! q& \; v( W4 y
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么9 H2 x, X* n0 q8 y3 i- S

* m* f$ a) \6 P$ L% N40%的机会你会收到150元的利润! w) K  c# N- g& F6 s- B
60%的机会你会一无所有6 O, J" }1 `( A& B
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 % |, |) I0 C* q$ D& h6 _# I
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。. o4 K9 J' g. `, P6 A

- w2 @# k* ?5 ^9 Z; ]( D* O/ T增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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9 D% n! u( x  k: X基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。6 k5 Y9 p! j# p3 h

1 \- r1 ~4 q0 D) \2 B公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
* G# f7 R9 [6 kP=获胜机会
* v  N3 B  j4 @, F1 Z& W& LO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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3 @$ E, F+ O' J- K首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。6 N; c6 d, X- N6 W
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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9 L$ j. k, |) s# C7 ]+ G  Z/ dA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
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" y& v: L& S5 a4 _" r结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢" D7 s) Y' G; G3 y0 b
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)7 Y: `6 m9 h) R
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1
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, W8 x% M% c+ Z$ ?8 S结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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8 o: Y! u  n! I  o5 z# }- i% G3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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6 d9 K: E/ k! L% v/ v9 vA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)+ j: x; w. y8 i4 S

' P* O+ P6 I; I3 @: MA= -0.2 - D" G! E( }' y, `' a. Q: l

# B0 R- T; J1 O" d  V1 u0 [+ W结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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( `9 L2 \' a& h: [6 X第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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