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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率: l( I  i; J8 [& ~( y& q

+ ]5 f3 \9 ]9 w( @, \以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 4 V5 ~3 g( s9 k1 g9 n4 a

) n5 R  G/ n! U$ i! e! ?很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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4 z# F+ \3 R: S* J答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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8 F1 n5 u* r+ H( _& |以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?5 b/ P* f, w9 w* u# Q) \

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盈利可能性
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$ n, b# \7 O- H8 k. N对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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) i, H" i9 g  y增值+ d1 p6 L4 M# b+ h
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。2 U. _6 F9 e! r0 b8 a3 L  p

) N9 ^% S# g3 Y( \& g你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?5 s# e' z5 Z/ m1 w$ w! I
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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! ^$ _. _' m+ }1 G3 |! G* @正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么" B& A0 r9 J4 [9 ^0 l6 D3 e) @
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
8 Q# P9 G( \# ]& F) m0 O5 I5 Z# B60%的机会你会一无所有  l6 {5 J1 Z  X
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 9 ^$ W7 U5 D: `2 U
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。$ d0 d' h3 H( T/ Q4 c! l

7 R' r% a7 L8 }2 F/ W增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。8 h: s! [9 M2 x9 i# M
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基于增值的投注3 P& Q- Q9 n8 ~1 @2 w

  H/ u& j9 P) Q: E凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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  a' Y+ c* k/ f公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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! j: h2 h  q% I; \7 ~# ]A=博彩资金( P" y$ M) }+ a/ C" f& @' r
P=获胜机会
9 J' l" h3 K0 B+ t* o; \2 \# [O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)% Z8 X5 I7 _7 H* E

8 I4 i+ V) V4 q* u6 y# }5 A* `( W" X9 o首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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- E! h% x* y  R0 e好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5). M: t# U+ E. w! H8 `2 x" a$ c

) k4 G# i0 @' a* Q3 \( s4 QA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
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* l0 k* L2 ~9 X4 I结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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  N8 u6 K6 X( \A=0.1% R* x% S: U; Z, t4 W! p- K1 A

* ]% ^5 x% i6 R! P$ j结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去$ V7 [( R9 J& A+ Y8 O8 x/ |7 K/ F
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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3 ?6 S1 A+ b7 t+ P' }A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2 ( G8 d5 Z  |- h( |, p' z5 |

& l- s2 i" R* @) \! A结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好2 m7 J, N, I1 r, A. G5 }

* `  _6 P: r1 n7 z% \, C9 B( k, }4 p第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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