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[lastpost] => 2808978 英国国家安全委员会主席呼吁禁止加密货币ZZ捐款，以防范外国干预英国选举（转） 1771983620 jackcool1011
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2735 小时
本月在线: 70 小时
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截至 2026 年 2 月，加密市场仿佛进入了寒冬。ETH 跌破1900，今年开局创下历史最差表现之一，较 2025 年高点下跌超过 60%。2 n& m" c) H. t& D
& P! l5 K# ^$ s8 I市场情绪极度恐慌，甚至连内部人士卖币都加剧了压力。' j' v) q. N. L) w* @
一、先说技术面, N5 `5 g" \: c2 X* J) \7 z
这一点也是我在社区反复强调的，K线上我们经历了急跌，横盘，而最近的下跌完美符合预期的最后一跌！6 n) _0 _7 h- n
而我能做的就是让大家拿住，甚至也来到完美的定投区间，可以参考22年的走势，这是最后一跌！6 }9 | M. ?: E$ C
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二、再看宏观5 q3 T0 `/ g6 @. W
以太坊2月日活跃地址维持在55万-70万 （主网），1-2月曾接近/突破100万 新高区间。7日/30日均线仍在上行，证明真实用户和DApp活跃度在增强。
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! D" V+ x7 D% k: r: p1 O2月7日单日交易量达2.896M历史最高，2月22日仍维持在170万 。2026年初整体较2025年同期大幅回升，稳定币和L2活动是主要驱动。
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ETH链上稳定币总供应约158-183B USD（占全球50%以上），2025-2026年持续爬升并创新高，说明稳定币持续增长！; [+ p$ C0 h& j+ h
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交易所ETH储备减少持续下降,全交易所ETH储备降至16.2M ETH（2016年以来最低），2026年初持续净流出。
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所以，结合质押锁定，有效流动供应大幅收紧（约45% ETH已illiquid）, 尽管ETH价格短期承压，但网络基本面在2026年2月正处于爆发前夜+ c8 |0 _1 ~- C* f) f, ~
三、机构在买，而不是跑1 W& a& J- t9 ^* Z& X0 t* P
散户恐慌，机构却在布局。ETF 资金流入恢复，企业金库在低位配置 ETH。 传统金融机构持续在以太坊上做代币化产品。
6 {8 T3 W i @* T! C$ m
j% N$ L5 }) M: z ) ?& g/ K0 F4 F0 U: A
/ ?3 ]0 _: p1 \1 N4 x1月整体净流出2.53亿美元，但2月17日单日净流入4863万美元（BlackRock ETHA单日 2289万领跑），2月13日也曾翻正 1026万。$ M |+ }. y$ g1 v
近期虽有波动，但已出现多次正流入/零流出，累计AUM仍超115亿美元，显示机构在$1900附近开始重新布局。
. t H3 u7 X& ~" U3 S四、2026 年路线图聚焦
) k" B7 ?3 N5 n. m3 v3 C. K+ V升级方向包括：
3 b; ]+ o) m( E: {提升 Gas 上限
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增强 L2 互操作性7 o2 L8 j& S3 e1 p% h: r" Q/ C
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扩展零知识基础设施# p$ E; d- r* G
' j8 B% o3 b0 y9 t0 c账户抽象" z; L+ ~7 v8 q2 \# p/ M/ V" ~
; I9 n3 o6 d" a3 N2 ?) a抗量子安全
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Harden the L1：后量子密码、FOCIL抗审查、网络韧性测试，V神也强调“不再是UX vs 安全，而是提升安全的UX”* {8 |7 T4 M8 p( L I2 g5 t$ t& s( ?
, `, g; e% X6 }所以，如果宏观稳定、资金回流，ETH 不需要炒作，只需要被重新定价。4 E6 n& D. v, Q+ x- ~9 h
) ?* k5 M0 z! X5 u |& M这不是盲目乐观，我坚信，冬天往往是最大反弹的起点。 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 13720 小时
本月在线: 46 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 238 小时
本月在线: 13 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 123 小时
本月在线: 17 小时
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这波跌得挺狠，但看数据好像真有人在默默抄底，心态得稳住啊 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 75 小时
本月在线: 14 小时
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ETH 这价位确实有点诱人了，但真进去还得看后续怎么走 |
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