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[lastpost] => 2804717 黑天鹅原来是它：本轮比特币暴跌的真正原因（转） 1770605239 小作文
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币再次瞄准 10 万美元 – 看涨势头能否刺激投资者？（转）
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比特币 [BTC]开始采取行动夺回 100,000 美元的区域，截至发稿时，交易价格低于 98,215.61 美元，而过去 24 小时内价格小幅上涨了 0.42%。9 W3 _1 N6 N' W0 C
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由于市场上大量投资者、现货交易商和矿工的看涨情绪日益高涨，预计涨势将持续，并有可能将 BTC 带入图表上的标记区域。5 Q! G( @1 L4 @
$ P* y! e; M% F/ P5 [9 {; ^: N比特币重新分配正在进行# K$ P( o) t- P/ h) ^% F
7 A- g) h" |& w4 P9 L" n. K$ o目前，市场上的比特币正在重新分配。这意味着持有更多 BTC 的市场参与者群体正在转移。
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目前，这种转变已经从持有至少 1% 流通 BTC 供应量的鲸鱼转向另外两类：持有少于1 BTC 的虾类和持有100-1,000 BTC 的鲨鱼。
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- ~/ u' ~& j/ ~, p' m6 ~3 C h然而，鲨鱼却占据了领先地位。
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, ~; d. D4 e# P根据 Glassnode 的数据，比特币鲨鱼目前占据 20% 的主导地位，这意味着他们积累的 BTC 比任何其他群体都多。: g0 C- ^$ `% ?( B
' a& |: n* q- F: }通过这种重新分配，特别是在小型和相对大型持有者之间的重新分配，表明这些群体的信心正在增强，他们可能将 BTC 跌破 100,000 美元视为买入机会。
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$ O' k9 K( ~% @* u) ^* ?/ }仔细观察比特币的 NUPL（净未实现利润/亏损）可以证实这一看涨趋势。
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当时，NUPL 显示市场处于“信念”阶段，或看涨持续阶段，截稿时读数为 0.556，表明整体购买活动活跃。
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/ w/ w3 I, [$ E2 |" \* P/ J0 [比特币矿工实现的利润微乎其微2 g( o6 T7 B- g3 z5 o
CryptoQuant 上的矿工持仓指数 (MPI) 表明，在维护区块链完整性方面发挥重要作用的比特币矿工正在逐渐抛售。
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本文撰写时，MPI 读数为负 0.8，表明抛售压力较低。这表明矿工可能正在获利回吐以弥补运营成本。/ M! E' O! v2 T. T0 d ~. s" b
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) m6 Q: K1 \' s" d" j一旦此阶段结束，这些矿工可能会逐渐开始再次购买 BTC，增加他们的投资组合并为市场带来潜在的看涨压力。
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# g- p; [( T8 ~ v" F现货交易商调整
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现货交易商开始顺应市场情绪，因为最近几天 BTC 的购买活动非常活跃。+ X* d: V9 y6 X* T* @
9 E$ O' |1 n9 V: P* e8 B仅在过去 24 小时内，Exchange Netflow 数据显示，从加密货币交易所购买了 1,100 BTC，较前一天购买的 262 BTC 大幅增加。 P' l. O1 F* A7 C+ s& M- |
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如果这种购买趋势持续下去，则表明现货交易商的看涨情绪将明显转变，与 BTC 投资者团体和矿工当前的情绪一致。
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